ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

Barring any positive news from Europe over the weekend - I think we'll make a go at that gap below early next week.

Could still find a bottom in the 4150 area, but it does look weak from here.

Gap filled.

Where to from here?

Lower seems like the more likely trajectory, IMO, but it may be a bumpy ride. FOMC on Wednesday.

We're only ~ 1.3 % from the February low as of today's close.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

I have not changed my opinion at all... If anything, its strengthened it as this is typical bearish PA.... as far as core short position goes, I have scaled in/ out more times than I can count... adding on significant strength ... covering into significant weakness... & I`ll continue to do so.

GL

Are you going to update us on your position shorts? Everyone seems to be leaning towards long going forward. Have you flipped opinions or are you still confident of further down action?

from Feb 26th;
I remember you asking me this 3 weeks ago…
You don’t want to be everyone else … let the herd al go in there direction while you need to stand by your own convictions and stand alone with what you know to be true…

 

[c1rcle]

NQ new low didnt last very long. Hysterical buying kicked in straight away.

 

[Concinnity]

NQ new low didnt last very long. Hysterical buying kicked in straight away.

Well we have been really bearish for a while on Daily. Those moves up aren't even a full ATR on a daily chart. Today seems a little less clear for me and maybe a little trickier. We did get the same pattern them holding ES up and than the bigger ES dump came later. Same thing different day.

ES still didn't fully clear it's Daily relative lows (4093.25) yet. But doesn't always have to fully clear. Good luck today man.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Well we have been really bearish for a while on Daily. Those moves up aren't even a full ATR on a daily chart. Today seems a little less clear for me and maybe a little trickier. We did get the same pattern them holding ES up and than the bigger ES dump came later. Same thing different day.

ES still didn't fully clear it's Daily relative lows (4093.25) yet. But doesn't always have to fully clear. Good luck today man.

Looks to me like a little short covering rally. I'm going to stay short which is the predominant trend right now on larger frames. Headed out for 18---Talk soon.

 

[Laissez Faire]

4237. Last week's mid-point. Worth paying some attention to.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Would normally see at least a 41 print here intraday, statistically speaking, but last week's mid-point may negate that.

Pretty nice ride so far this morning, though. Looks like someone may be front-running the FOMC tomorrow.

Strong up moves have been sold lately, so it's no reason for the bulls to celebrate just yet.

 

[Laissez Faire]

In a normal, lower volatility bull market, this type of day would typically trend higher for the rest of the day with a few dips, but in this environment it could be one large flag one could sell into for a big move lower.

Not a prediction...

 

[Concinnity]

In a normal, lower volatility bull market, this type of day would typically trend higher for the rest of the day with a few dips, but in this environment it could be one large flag one could sell into for a big move lower.

Not a prediction...

ES is sitting in an a previous accumulation zone 4138-4204 and we're currently trading above 4204 . Spent about 3 days inside that range, generally this a pretty bullish setup. So, another reason why I was a little more cautious on shorting today intra-day once we broke above.

Still long term bearish, but a move to 4305 ish tomorrow wouldn't be that surprising, since it's so obviously bearish here. Not a bad setup to squeeze shorts further. Going to continue to stay flexible here.

 

[c1rcle]

ES is sitting in an a previous accumulation zone 4138-4204 and we're currently trading above 4204 . Spent about 3 days inside that range, generally this a pretty bullish setup. So, another reason why I was a little more cautious on shorting today intra-day once we broke above.

Still long term bearish, but a move to 4305 ish tomorrow wouldn't be that surprising, since it's so obviously bearish here. Not a bad setup to squeeze shorts further. Going to continue to stay flexible here.

Overbought on the hourly could be a good short opportunity