I like using a trend indicator with Bollinger Bands on a larger frame than I am trading and then use oscillators and Bollinger Bands on the frame that I am entering and exiting on. I should point out---it's still possible to lose all or more of your money using any system.
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
"Loud Fast Clap" -- excellent post.
I think one of the toughest things to do is to short a "long only" market. It can be done, but usually the opportunity exists for just a short period of time and then the buying comes back in with a vengeance.Update.
Rejected last week's range once again on today's Open. Still a messy, rangebound and news sensitive market, IMO, with the pressure being to the downside.
Barring any positive news from Europe over the weekend - I think we'll make a go at that gap below early next week.
Could still find a bottom in the 4150 area, but it does look weak from here.
Not easy to hold shorts either as these bear market rallies are vicious.
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Very interesting you mention ADX and DMI. Some of the indicators I trade are derived from both of those. It's essentially what I use to determine which chart is leading and than tend to give the overall bias towards that chart(the largest chart, that has the most recent change takes precedence). Love to hear that you use them.
Not sure I'd agree with the "long only" characterization of the US indices, but there is no doubt an upwards drift/bias in the indices long term.
Holding long is easier as the volatility and counter-moves usually are weaker with more persistent trends. Unless you shorted the highs it's hard to hold short. And even if you shorted the high it can still be hard to hold as the market will move strongly against you still. Just look at the mess and zig zagging on that chart I just posted.
You had a great entry with your position short trade and was quite early there. So, great call on that and maybe a pity you're still not holding...?
Rambling further I'll say it's less likely than likely that the next 10 years will be similar to the prior decade. We can't rule out a sustained bear market moving forward.
YES ! This is an important step to understanding how to consistently profit by interim counter trend trades against and while holding positions that you maintain for a longer bias.
Bravo for sharing your insights @Buy1Sell2
Thanks
Yes.. to understand that in this price level with this market structure the market is going to be bullish although in downtown.. for the next 5 to 25 minute.
Even the bears stop to cell there...
While I also ‘think’ we are in bear market territory this year, and possibly ‘23, when you open an very longterm chart (100 years) we have still corrected (spx)only a minor blip and I can easily see the market running up more. This would just be eyeballing a chart and completely ignoring the fundamentals, which have changed (qe, zirp). And if we correct say 50%, why wouldn’t it run again like it has done before?
And for politicians/leaders, isn’t it better to always have a rising stockmarket (even if we ignore inflation)? I understand this sounds simplistic, but i think most people buy into the perception a rising stockmarket benefits them, even if it weren’t only psychologically. It just ‘sells better’. Look for example at all the people bragging about the risen prices off their homes at party’s (while this has no real benefit to them if they posses one home).
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