ES Journal - 2021/2022

Buy1Sell2 said:
You are saving premium outlay by buying the future but are not limiting the downside as the future could fall out of the sky. By buying an OTM or ATM call instead of the future and selling 2 OTM calls, it is possible to get in with no outlay or maybe even a net credit and thus have no downside risk on the long call in my view. As with all strategies of this type, there is risk that the naked call goes well against you, so a person needs a strategy if market takes off.
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Absolutely correct. My management after putting on both sides of the trade is using Greeks and Delta in particular. Since I have profit/loss possibilities on both the options Sold and the Future bought -- with proper management and duration considerations -- I will have an opportunity to close both sides of the trade profitably. Of course I am collection premium on the sold ATM options and Theta, while benefiting from the future trade price increase. The key is, of course, managing the trade. I use the Risk Analyze Tab in the TOS platform to plot and manage the trade. Not hard to do and can set stops on both sides of the trade.
 
As far as DMI, here is a look at the 5 minute cash chart from the last 2 days----and there were two strong trends identified by DMI. ---Yesterday up, today down. There was also a weak trend that fizzled. It was still a trend, but that's where PRM would come in.
upload_2022-3-11_15-24-30.png
 
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Buy1Sell2 said:
As far as DMI, here is a look at the 5 minute cash chart from the last 2 days----and there were two strong trends identified by DMI. ---Yesterday up, today down. There was also a weak trend that fizzled.
View attachment 280119
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Again @Buy1Sell2 -- I now understand and benefit from your input. Yes, ADX plus use of Bollinger Bands are certainly useful. I avoid co-linearity by not using too many studies. Certainly, @Buy1Sell2, I do see the value and thanks for the excellent post and illustrative charts that ADX is a good system and indicator for trading. I do have the book written on ADX and was even once in a group that just used it for Profitable Trading.
 
MACD said:
Again @Buy1Sell2 -- I now understand and benefit from your input. Yes, ADX plus use of Bollinger Bands are certainly useful. I avoid co-linearity by not using too many studies. Certainly, @Buy1Sell2, I do see the value and thanks for the excellent post and illustrative charts that ADX is a good system and indicator for trading. I do have the book written on ADX and was even once in a group that just used it for Profitable Trading.
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It's downfall is that it gets you in late, but many times the trend continues for longer that it would otherwise or longer than someone would normally stay in a trade. And it lends itself well to trailing stop placements that have a better chance of not being hit in my view.
 
RXIS said:
slow clap
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Update.

Rejected last week's range once again on today's Open. Still a messy, rangebound and news sensitive market, IMO, with the pressure being to the downside.

Barring any positive news from Europe over the weekend - I think we'll make a go at that gap below early next week.

Could still find a bottom in the 4150 area, but it does look weak from here.

Not easy to hold shorts either as these bear market rallies are vicious. :)

upload_2022-3-11_22-42-45.png
 
Laissez Faire said:
Update.

Rejected last week's range once again on today's Open. Still a messy, rangebound and news sensitive market, IMO, with the pressure being to the downside.

Barring any positive news from Europe over the weekend - I think we'll make a go at that gap below early next week.

Could still find a bottom in the 4150 area, but it does look weak from here.

Not easy to hold shorts either as these bear market rallies are vicious. :)

View attachment 280120
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"Fast Clap"
 
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