ES Journal - 2021/2022

Concinnity said:
Tough day for sure. Was still too bearish bias, clowded by judgement to see long as well. Only had 2 small shorts took profit on quickly and had two longs where I identified ES/NQ divergence. They were selling NQ pretty consistently but ES was holding or going up everytime NQ dipped. That relationship briefly changed, so went long got 30 point on that short squeeze trade.
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Nothing wrong with having a bearish bias in a bear market, especially with so many bearish signals too.
 
c1rcle said:
Nothing wrong with having a bearish bias in a bear market, especially with so many bearish signals too.
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Yeah but we already hunted out (or close enough) to relative lows, so therefore lose that advantage of probability. That's why lightened up my view. At this point better to just take signals as they come, since cannot rely as heavily on the bearish bias. Just speaking for myself personally. You can see how hard they are locking up the short covering supply today. Very difficult to cover a short in general.
 
Concinnity said:
Yeah but we already hunted out (or close enough) to relative lows, so therefore lose that advantage of probability. That's why lightened up my view. At this point better to just take signals as they come, since cannot rely as heavily on the bearish bias. Just speaking for myself personally. You can see how hard they are locking up the short covering supply today. Very difficult to cover a short in general.
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Agreed, I still think the overnight increase was a bit too much to maintain momentum for the full day though, and there looked like areas of weakness ready for a short position.

I had also marked exactly where we are now as a short opportunity last week, but I cant remember why now.
 
c1rcle said:
Agreed, I still think the overnight increase was a bit too much to maintain momentum for the full day though, and there looked like areas of weakness ready for a short position.

I had also marked exactly where we are now as a short opportunity last week, but I cant remember why now.
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Yeah, overall I agree with you just keep in mind I am speaking from the angle of not having the appropiate account size to really fight a macro move like this. This up move is just not strong enough to change macro view, even another day of up move wouldn't be enough. So, totally tracking and agreeing with you. Just have to apply strategies that fit within account type I am trading.
 
Concinnity said:
Yeah, overall I agree with you just keep in mind I am speaking from the angle of not having the appropiate account size to really fight a macro move like this. This up move is just not strong enough to change macro view, even another day of up move wouldn't be enough. So, totally tracking and agreeing with you. Just have to apply strategies that fit within account type I am trading.
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Yeah the moves are pretty extreme today, I usually reduce my position sizing to account for the moves, but today seemed like it would be an easy day to short at first.
 
This is about the 60M TL… If Bullies hold TL .. they will continue to pin us at the highs…

I’m willing to lose $7500 / 95 stop, on this idea .. 10 lot
1/3 rd of typical daily take… accepted risk!

If we bust 60M TL … it will be late in day… this is called pinned to the highs…. I give it 50/50
… had +10… but not what I’m looking for here..
 
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