ES Journal - 2021/2022

c1rcle said:
Yeah I lost patience and closed my short on Friday because of that, so missed out on the gap down. Thankfully it went all the way up again and gave me a second chance to short at the same level!
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I wouldn't feel to bad about that, holding over the weekend in these conditions is extremely dangerous, certainly if you use leverage.

Even though it seems unlikely right now, positive news from Ukraine/Russia and the markets will gap up massively. Unlikely but not impossible.

Better be safe than sorry.
 
DevBru said:
I wouldn't feel to bad about that, holding over the weekend in these conditions is extremely dangerous, certainly if you use leverage.

Even though it seems unlikely right now, positive news from Ukraine/Russia and the markets will gap up massively. Unlikely but not impossible.

Better be safe than sorry.
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Good point. My golden rule is to always protect what I have instead of worrying about what I am missing out on, so I am generally way more cautious than I need to be most of the time.

Friday was a bit different though because the market was being propped up into the close which made me suspicious that the market would gap down on Sunday, but I wasnt sure enough to hold, for the very reasons you stated.
 
Spooz Top 2 said:
... I put a little more faith in it as Globex high / Lo`s should be marked on your intraday chart as it, H/L, has significant relevance.
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Listen to this man...Both yellow lines are Globex Hi and low

ES 03-22 (50000 Volume) 3_7_2022.jpg
 
ES 4101.75 and NQ 13025.75 are the Daily chart relative lows. They already started to hunt for those on this move down today. That's going to be my ultimate target on any bearish build we put in tomorrow (assuming we don't clear them overnight).

If you check on ES Daily you can see we have 6 day traded near / slightly above Daily resistance. So basically 6 days of likely trapped buyers ready to force them to puke out and if that happens very likely to make new relative lows, if not tomorrow likely sometime this week.
 
A lot of times people will see this as a double bottom, plus potentially overly aggressive shorts and in addition some short term players likely to enter long here as well. Could certainly see an up move over the night / early tomorrow, but most likely that will just be delaying the inevitable. This is the ideal scenario for me and if it plays out will certainly be looking for a bearish build with bearish divergence tomorrow intra-day and keep attacking those setups on smaller time frames if they present themselves. At some point this week we're likely to go challenge those relative lows if not make new ones.

If we take out relative lows overnight and than are in a position to regain them intra-day makes things a little trickier to trade, at least for me and will have to play it more by ear.
 
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