ES Journal - 2021/2022

[tiddlywinks]

not sure if we get 30 up or 30 down from here.

I vote 30 down.

Here's my ugly 24hr ES DAILY, updated from the post of about 2 weeks ago.
No trend line "adjustments" have been made. However, some S&R levels that I deem useful have been added.

Down volume remains the dominance.

Good trading to all.

NOTE: posted during late day market hours... the rightmost bar is not complete.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

To be honest though, I can just as easily make the case for the blue IHS matching something similar that you show in white, and that didn't produce a rally. Furthermore, the IHS in red did produce a nice bounce, and another IHS in yellow failed to rally.

If I look for a regular pattern vs. an inverted one, I see a small one outlined in cyan (with a double top being the head), and I guess this one did produce a nice drop. You can even draw in a bigger one, the magenta one.

View attachment 279371

So for me, these head and shoulder patterns are everywhere and hardly that predictive and quite subjective with how you draw them. They are only obvious once its too late to enter anyway.

There were only 2 legitimate IHS in that whole chart... both of which came to fruition, fyi.
The rest is sloppy noise....

 

[Concinnity]

NQ yesterdays open bar price on Daily is 13900.25. Think that would be a good magnet for price. ES already filled it's Open bar price.

Off by a quarter tick we hit 13900.00 going to have to completely re-work my technical analysis.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

There were only 2 legitimate IHS in that whole chart... both of which came to fruition, fyi.
The rest is sloppy noise....

Noah , another thing to note, even though this last IHS failed, even if you entered where your supposed to , during right shoulder buildout,say 00 … you still had up to 25 handles of profit to work with!
That’s winner winner chicken dinner every day of the week and twice on Sundays!!!!

 

[NoahA]

Noah , another thing to note, even though this last IHS failed, even if you entered where your supposed to , during right shoulder buildout,say 00 … you still had up to 25 handles of profit to work with!
That’s winner winner chicken dinner every day of the week and twice on Sundays!!!!

Can you show which two IHS patterns are legitimate and what the rules are for this? Also, since you say to enter where the entry should be, what are your rules for this? I agree that a trade moving 25 points in your favor is a win, regardless of how much further it goes. Thanks.

 

[c1rcle]

Can you show which two IHS patterns are legitimate and what the rules are for this? Also, since you say to enter where the entry should be, what are your rules for this? I agree that a trade moving 25 points in your favor is a win, regardless of how much further it goes. Thanks.

He is basically saying the risk and reward ratio is better if you open the position at the shoulder. It makes sense because you get the move along the shoulder and then the bonus of the follow through after if confirmed.

Some people choose to wait until after confirmation but with that approach you only win anything if the H&S is fully confirmed.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

Can you show which two IHS patterns are legitimate and what the rules are for this? Also, since you say to enter where the entry should be, what are your rules for this? I agree that a trade moving 25 points in your favor is a win, regardless of how much further it goes. Thanks.

1st. You had L shoulder & head… could’ve bot right shoulder but need to kick it after it traveled sideways and never made it to NL.
2.good.. you should be able to draw TL evenly across NL .. even if sideways formation.
3. This looks more like a pirate hat w a pirate smile than an IHS… NL was never even w shoulder buildout… that’s key to look for .. TL across NL evenly.
4.I actually caught this one at 60.50 bid right shoulder buy .. lined up perfect with left shoulder… which is why I bot the gap down and bid 60.50… that’s where your right shoulder is .. at 60… not further out.

You need to watch for even NLs and able to draw TL evenly across… also anticipate the right shoulder buildout as that’s where you conservative entry is… it’s usually in the neighborhood of where the left shoulder planted and reversed… that’s ur entry .. not at the break out of NL… Experience is the Only teacher here!
Practice practice… it’s a game of observation first & foremost!

 

[Spooz Top 2]

He is basically saying the risk and reward ratio is better if you open the position at the shoulder. It makes sense because you get the move along the shoulder and then the bonus of the follow through after if confirmed.

Some people choose to wait until after confirmation but with that approach you only win anything if the H&S is fully confirmed.

Well said buddy!

 

[newbie463]

3 push down on the 5min from overnight. last leg not completed. not sure if we get 30 up or 30 down from here.

how about both!

 

[NoahA]

Experience is the Only teacher here!
Practice practice… it’s a game of observation first & foremost!

Agreed! Thanks for the write-up.