ES Journal - 2021/2022

With these large moves happening at the exact same time those news were released it seems like a natural conclusion that the news were causing those moves.

Generally, I'm not a news trader and trade markets technically not paying any attention to "normal" news, but obviously what's going on right now can potentially have a huge impact on the world and the world economy. So, news rules right now. Not moving averages. In my humble opinion as always of course. :)
 
I'm exhausted from trading both ETH and RTH sessions.

Going to call it a day here. There are probably few more down legs. The ball is now in bear court.

Good luck.

Untitled111.png
 
Laissez Faire said:
With these large moves happening at the exact same time those news were released it seems like a natural conclusion that the news were causing those moves.

Generally, I'm not a news trader and trade markets technically not paying any attention to "normal" news, but obviously what's going on right now can potentially have a huge impact on the world and the world economy. So, news rules right now. Not moving averages. In my humble opinion as always of course. :)
More...


Yes, but my point is we rallied to the expectation of technical analysis and we sold off right at resistance. I've had the same Daily benchmark for a long time now and have been saying bulls looks weak for a while. So by following my TA view I kept my consistency, if I made a decision based upon every news release on Russia, I personally would be chasing my tail and could not find any long term consistency in that. Of course they could take advantage of new buyers and force shorts out with a new release..... that would be a great catalyst event, but you see that would be trading the news that came out, NOT trading technical analysis. If news comes out and we close above the Daily EMA's great, now I know to look long anyways. Not get baited into going long because of a news release.

Does this not make sense? If you're factoring in all this news, why would you be looking long so much, particularly holding for larger moves? There's been way more bad news, than good news.

Both those things just don't make sense to me personally. I am genuinely just trying to understand the logic.
 
Concinnity said:
...if I made a decision based upon every news release on Russia, I personally would be chasing my tail and could not find any long term consistency in that.
More...

I didn't suggest that you or anyone else should trade based on news. It can certainly be done, but it requires some sophistication and it's not something I've personally pursued.

On that subject I was actually surprised to read how many of the traders in Schwager's latest book were news traders.

If you're factoring in all this news, why would you be looking long so much, particularly holding for larger moves? There's been way more bad news, than good news.
More...

I came into this week with a purely technical short bias and was short on Monday, but with repeated attempts below Friday's Low and no follow through I switched long.

I've been long since Monday's Close because I got a buy signal on the daily chart that day and have been holding since the price development initially was positive and we had some good news suggesting the ongoing conflict could be resolved. Since I had a good spot on my entry I didn't mind holding it.

To sort out any confusion: I generally don't trade on news in the sense that I'm trying to interpret it or make sense of it. I gave up that a long time ago as there were so many examples of where the logical conclusion would be to drop or pop and the market did the complete opposite.

All I'm saying is that for this week the bigger moves seemed to happen as a result of news releases and that the unresolved conflict is probably the reason we got stuck here.

I'm 100 % certain that if news were released now that Russia is pulling back their troops the markets would rally.
 
Laissez Faire said:
I didn't suggest that you or anyone else should trade based on news. It can certainly be done, but it requires some sophistication and it's not something I've personally pursued.

On that subject I was actually surprised to read how many of the traders in Schwager's latest book were news traders.



I came into this week with a purely technical short bias and was short on Monday, but with repeated attempts below Friday's Low and no follow through I switched long.

I've been long since Monday's Close because I got a buy signal on the daily chart that day and have been holding since the price development initially was positive and we had some good news suggesting the ongoing conflict could be resolved. Since I had a good spot on my entry I didn't mind holding it.

To sort out any confusion: I generally don't trade on news in the sense that I'm trying to interpret it or make sense of it. I gave up that a long time ago as there were so many examples of where the logical conclusion would be to drop or pop and the market did the complete opposite.

All I'm saying is that for this week the bigger moves seemed to happen as a result of news releases and that the unresolved conflict is probably the reason we got stuck here.

I'm 100 % certain that if news were released now that Russia is pulling back their troops the markets would rally.
More...


Ok thank you for putting the time in for a clear and in depth reply, appreciate it.
 
Concinnity said:
Yes, but my point is we rallied to the expectation of technical analysis and we sold off right at resistance. I've had the same Daily benchmark for a long time now and have been saying bulls looks weak for a while. So by following my TA view I kept my consistency, if I made a decision based upon every news release on Russia, I personally would be chasing my tail and could not find any long term consistency in that. Of course they could take advantage of new buyers and force shorts out with a new release..... that would be a great catalyst event, but you see that would be trading the news that came out, NOT trading technical analysis. If news comes out and we close above the Daily EMA's great, now I know to look long anyways. Not get baited into going long because of a news release.

Does this not make sense? If you're factoring in all this news, why would you be looking long so much, particularly holding for larger moves? There's been way more bad news, than good news.

Both those things just don't make sense to me personally. I am genuinely just trying to understand the logic.
More...
Never overthink the news. Overthink the herd's reaction to the news, then do the opposite.
 
vanzandt said:
Never overthink the news. Overthink the herd's reaction to the news, then do the opposite.
More...
+1 … let the sheeple/ herd overreact while the sniper lies in wait and counters! Yesterday’s Rip
Great example!
spank the lifts …. The herd is always wrong at both ends….
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top