ES Journal - 2021/2022

wiesman02 · Feb 17, 2022

Still plenty of time to make the weekly candle a down bar

vanzandt · Feb 17, 2022

Laissez Faire said:
As our beloved @Buy1Sell2 would say: "I see no obvious reason to be short here."

Laissez Faire · Feb 17, 2022

wiesman02 said:
Still plenty of time to make the weekly candle a down bar

If there's a week to do so it should be this one. The Ukraine-Russia story is what seems to be weighing down the markets at the moment judging from how the market reacts to news.

However, even if that situation resolves it seems to me that the equity markets have other concerns than that. Such as raging inflation and the FED tapering + hiking rates. Frankly, I was a bit surprised we didn't drop further on Monday, but the markets moves in waves, so maybe we're just consolidating before the next bigger drop.

wiesman02 · Feb 17, 2022

Laissez Faire said:
If there's a week to do so it should be this one. The Ukraine-Russia story is what seems to be weighing down the markets at the moment judging from how the market reacts to news.

However, even if that situation resolves it seems to me that the equity markets have other concerns than that. Such as raging inflation and the FED tapering + hiking rates. Frankly, I was a bit surprised we didn't drop further on Monday, but the markets moves in waves, so maybe we're just consoldiating before the next bigger drop.

which is exactly why this will be a prolonged move down. We are moving down in waves as opposed to one long drop like every other dip

Laissez Faire · Feb 17, 2022

Dip buyers still showing up. I have 4418/20 as a support zone / line in the sand. I'm afraid a dip much below that would diminish the chances of any continuation higher this week.

Concinnity · Feb 17, 2022

Laissez Faire said:
If there's a week to do so it should be this one. The Ukraine-Russia story is what seems to be weighing down the markets at the moment judging from how the market reacts to news.

However, even if that situation resolves it seems to me that the equity markets have other concerns than that. Such as raging inflation and the FED tapering + hiking rates. Frankly, I was a bit surprised we didn't drop further on Monday, but the markets moves in waves, so maybe we're just consolidating before the next bigger drop.

I am not saying news has nothing to do with it, but at same time we've been certainly leaning bearish in the big picture.. and the markets ES/NQ Daily are both stuck at a spot that is very common and standard for charts to get stuck at, after leaning overall bearish for a while.

Not that I am saying anything spectacular or ground breaking here, just saying from my perspective charts are trading fairly normal and don't really see much out of the ordinary, regardless of the news.

Laissez Faire · Feb 17, 2022

Concinnity said:
Not that I am saying anything spectacular or ground breaking here, just saying from my perspective charts are trading fairly normal and don't really see much out of the ordinary, regardless of the news.

To be clear - I didn't state otherwise.

However, it seems to me that most, if not all of the major moves this week have been triggered by news from Ukraine. The latest being tonight's drop overnight. And Tuesday's breakout to the upside on reports that Russia were pulling back...

wiesman02 · Feb 17, 2022

Laissez Faire said:
To be clear - I didn't state otherwise.

However, it seems to me that most, if not all of the major moves this week have been triggered by news from Ukraine. The latest being tonight's drop overnight. And Tuesday's breakout to the upside on reports that Russia were pulling back...

i trade the overnight session 3-4 days a week. The short squeeze move up we saw on Monday begun minutes after the Ukraine news. I don’t expect these levels to last but I’m also flat at the moment

Concinnity · Feb 17, 2022

Laissez Faire said:
To be clear - I didn't state otherwise.

However, it seems to me that most, if not all of the major moves this week have been triggered by news from Ukraine. The latest being tonight's drop overnight. And Tuesday's breakout to the upside on reports that Russia were pulling back...

Yeah, I want to be clear too, wasn't trying to debate or be snarky and I think most of us in this thread get it, just pointing out there's a fine line between news just being a catalyst vs actually causing the move. Like if I am not mistaken the news of russia pulling back came when markets we're already pretty far away from the Daily EMA's than we rally too them..... than both times news comes out of Russia to the bad side, we just happen to be sitting really close to the Daily EMA's / initial resistance, just seems so convenient.

c1rcle · Feb 17, 2022

Concinnity said:
Yeah, I want to be clear too, wasn't trying to debate or be snarky and I think most of us in this thread get it, just pointing out there's a fine line between news just being a catalyst vs actually causing the move. Like if I am not mistaken the news of russia pulling back came when markets we're already pretty far away from the Daily EMA's than we rally too them..... than both times news comes out of Russia to the bad side, we just happen to be sitting really close to the Daily EMA's / initial resistance, just seems so convenient.

Yeah exactly, I think a lot of the time the news just brings forward a movement that would have happened anyway.