ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Concinnity]

Well I was thinking of just taking the day off tomorrow anyway.

So are you playing this channel then with that target? I'm too late now because I would normally start scaling out around those moving averages, but its a bit close already now.

View attachment 276475

No, I don't use channels at all, just getting a buy signal here on ES Daily chart and we have yet to hit the Daily EMA which mine is at 4450ish currently. Which is typically a fairly bare bones target to hit, even in bearish environments. So, my expectation would be we hit the EMA tomorrow, given we have a buy signal.

I rarely trade overnight though, will wait for tomorrow at 9:30 and depending upon where we are and if anything has changed, I'll adjust my bias or plan.

 

[Overnight]

...

I am looking at 4450ish on ES tomorrow and 14660-14713 ish on NQ as potential targets if I see a good long setup tomorrow after 9:30 open. If we do make it to those levels I suspect that will be resistance. If we start trading above the levels consistently, particular if we candle close above them on the daily, than that will be first sign of some actual market strength and than I'll go from there.

Me thinks you are smoking crack if you think the market is going to rally 100 ES points from here tomorrow, and 400-500 NQ points now that Powell dropped the hammer. I am sure your targets will be hit, but not TOMORROW. Maybe by February 1st if ye be lucky.

But oh wait, there's more! Now we got Ukraine and Putin weighing on the mind of the market.

 

[c1rcle]

No, I don't use channels at all, just getting a buy signal here on ES Daily chart and we have yet to hit the Daily EMA which mine is at 4450ish currently. Which is typically a fairly bare bones target to hit, even in bearish environments. So, my expectation would be we hit the EMA tomorrow, given we have a buy signal.

I rarely trade overnight though, will wait for tomorrow at 9:30 and depending upon where we are and if anything has changed, I'll adjust my bias or plan.

Yeah that makes perfect sense. That is why I posted that image earlier, I really thought we would hit the moving averages today. It looked close on the image, but really it was hundreds of points away.

I guess its long now for the shorter term and short for the longer term. I will probably just wait for a bounce lower off the daily moving averages now.

 

[Concinnity]

Me thinks you are smoking crack if you think the market is going to rally 100 ES points from here tomorrow, and 400-500 NQ points now that Powell dropped the hammer. I am sure your targets will be hit, but not TOMORROW. Maybe by February 1st if ye be lucky.

But oh wait, there's more! Now we got Ukraine and Putin weighing on the mind of the market.

You're making it too complicated already for me. I need some type of consistency and you won't (I doubt) or at the very least I can say with certainty I won't get any type of consistency trying to take trades based around news.

Does that mean some setups may fail and maybe I could avoid some of those failures if I followed whatever news you give me? Sure, but than how in the world do I get any type of consistency that way?

I am sure they are out there, but I've never personally met a day trader, who trades off of primarily news as their primary income. Point is there are even less of them, because it's incredibly difficult to get any type of consistency from news.

You actually made a pretty good post awhile back saying how this drop was a little bit different than others. That leads me to the other point that there plenty of warning signals from a technical standpoint this drop was coming, you did not need to wait for "news" sure news might be a catalyst or extend moves, but generally people with large sums of money aren't sitting there with there finger on a button ready to sell or buy thousands and thousands of future contracts because some news came out. They are in the know people and are setting up zones to either accumulate or distribute there inventory, prior to the "news". Yes, not in all cases. I am not saying that. But in the majority of cases yes.

 

[Concinnity]

Me thinks you are smoking crack if you think the market is going to rally 100 ES points from here tomorrow, and 400-500 NQ points now that Powell dropped the hammer. I am sure your targets will be hit, but not TOMORROW. Maybe by February 1st if ye be lucky.

But oh wait, there's more! Now we got Ukraine and Putin weighing on the mind of the market.

Furthermore what would you like me to do, take a short at these levels right here? I would already be down 6 ES points per contract if I shorted when you made your comment. This is not a good R/R to short here. I never said load up the truck, because we're going to the target. Just giving a probability and a benchmark for tomorrow, because the R/R to short here sucks and makes no sense. Is it possible we go to war tomorrow and the market drops 1000 ES points? Sure, again what does that have to do with consistency of day trading?

That's why I keep news out of it and I will come in tomorrow at 9:30 look for a long or short setup that I know has probability and take it.

 

[Overnight]

You're making it too complicated already for me. I need some type of consistency and you won't (I doubt) or at the very least I can say with certainty I won't get any type of consistency trying to take trades based around news...

I am certainly not "trying to make it complicated" for you. I am just saying you should temper your expectations after the impact the Powell had on the markets today. Now Europe and Asia have to absorb the Fed statement overnight.

The markets may very well rise tomorrow, but those levels you suggest seem over-reaching by tomorrow's close. As for consistency? Yesterday and Monday showed ZERO consistency. When Tuesday action of a positive turnaround is inversely mirrored by a Wednesday negative turnaround at such great range extremes, nothing is certain, and certainly not consistent.

 

[Concinnity]

I am certainly not "trying to make it complicated" for you. I am just saying you should temper your expectations after the impact the Powell had on the markets today. Now Europe and Asia have to absorb the Fed statement overnight.

The markets may very well rise tomorrow, but those levels you suggest seem over-reaching by tomorrow's close. As for consistency? Yesterday and Monday showed ZERO consistency. When Tuesday action of a positive turnaround is inversely mirrored by a Wednesday negative turnaround at such great range extremes, nothing is certain, and certainly not consistent.

That's fair and I get what you're saying, but there WAS consistency in the markets, most people here didn't want the ES/NQ higher to buy, we wanted it higher to short into the rally. Because just like when market is super bullish, probability is that fast down sharp moves on smaller charts, typically get bought up right?

Now the market is bearish, so fast sharp up moves have higher probability to be faded, it's just the exact inverse. So for people who want the markets to go up, sure that sucks. But the fact is the market has been incredibly consistent for the past two weeks.

With that being said even in bearish times there becomes an imbalance of shorts/sellers everyone seeing and thinking the same thing. At that point it becomes profitable for someone to apply capital against them to squeeze them out and essentially exchange their contracts with there's (take their money) and than price will fall back down to an equilibrium.

That's exactly why I was long today, because ES/NQ Daily stopped printing oversold which as I explained in previous points that's when we will get a rally if it's going to come. It's true we failed to get the expectations I was looking for, so I only made money on the longs and missed the shorts. But that exact scenario played out today.

Tomorrow is a similar setup(albeit I don't see it as strong as yesterday) with a buy signal on ES Daily and all the negative news. I am looking for them to squeeze some sellers out and than depending on the setup I will again look to fade the move.

Does this make a little more sense how I am viewing and trading this?

 

[Overnight]

...I am looking for them to squeeze some sellers out and than depending on the setup I will again look to fade the move.

Does this make a little more sense how I am viewing and trading this?

Of course, your viewpoint is yours, and I may well see it. I just do not see it to the extremes you do. IMV, if you drop your long targets by 50% you will have a much better day.

Here comes start of Asia open, whooop! Let's see what they make of all this!

 

[athlonmank8]

Me thinks you are smoking crack if you think the market is going to rally 100 ES points from here tomorrow, and 400-500 NQ points now that Powell dropped the hammer. I am sure your targets will be hit, but not TOMORROW. Maybe by February 1st if ye be lucky.

But oh wait, there's more! Now we got Ukraine and Putin weighing on the mind of the market.

This is spot in. Market is in serious trouble. Technically we have plenty of upside but the trend is now down and will be for a long while imo.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

& flat & out off that rip… looking to sell into any over night lifts as Heavies are in charge…
Looking at 60-65 for potential sell zone here or on Globex over nite session

Sell limits tagged and filled @ 4362.50… cost avg… almost to the tick… gonna ride this one out! Buy covers set well below market….