ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

NQ didn't want to give up the green daily candle. Let's see if we can pop above 20 and print 25/30 from here.

Potentially, we can go a lot higher on the day, but maybe not until post FOMC, so best to not marry any opinion yet.

 

[wiesman02]

My sources at the fed say they plan on making the dumbest decision possible…..

 

[Laissez Faire]

NQ wants to print a new HOD intraday. I wonder if that could drag along ES, too.

 

[Laissez Faire]

NQ making a run for it. ES lagging. Not much going on above 20 yet, but getting there now...

 

[Laissez Faire]

Long on the next pop above 4420.

The 1st pop is often sold. Usually better to enter on the second one. Worth 7 points so far.

Too risky right now to engage further, IMO. The chart is saying buy, though. Under normal circumstances, would be looking for 4440 from here, but just as likely that we drop to 4410 into the FOMC.

Any of you gamblers who play the FOMC statement?

 

[c1rcle]

The PA and charts have been saying "buy" to me since early yesterday.

Just out of interest, have any of the people expecting a huge shorting opportunity coming up today changed their minds yet?

 

[Concinnity]

NQ Daily stopped printing oversold last night, woke up tis morning and finally saw same for ES Daily, once this happens it's generally when bulls try to make a push.

Given this typical expectations would be 4482 ish on ES as a min target and NQ about 14850ish as bare bones target. Really should not be difficult at all to hit these levels given how much we've came down, plus having FED invent as a catalyst... if the bulls are alive at all.

Personally going to look for a setup to fade these area's. Otherwise for the morning just keeping it light and waiting for a strong setup I understand(long or short). For evening will most likely just wait and look to capitalize on people over reacting during FED and trade that reaction.

Didn't find any short setups, mainly because was only focused on the long side given previous information and where the markets were when I woke up. Had some decent rallies so far. Still have very small QQQ position, but when flat on futures, caught some decent trades on MNQ.

Still have expectation of 4485 ish on ES and 14870 ish on NQ. May go flat prior to FED though and just trade the reaction.

 

[c1rcle]

Didn't find any short setups, mainly because was only focused on the long side given previous information and where the markets were when I woke up. Had some decent rallies so far. Still have very small QQQ position, but when flat on futures, caught some decent trades on MNQ.

Still have expectation of 4485 ish on ES and 14870 ish on NQ. May go flat prior to FED though and just trade the reaction.

Yeah I i closed my long position because I started to second guess myself after hearing all the hype about a big short opportunity. I wont make that mistake again. Although there is a tiny bit of downward motion right now I guess.

 

[Concinnity]

Yeah I i closed my long position because I started to second guess myself after hearing all the hype about a big short opportunity. I wont make that mistake again. Although there is a tiny bit of downward motion right now I guess.

I still think it may provide it later after the FED reaction. But today probability was long for tis morning. Been too easy to short lately, plus as mentioned ES/NQ Daily chart no longer oversold. Once oversold stops after prolong down period, that is when the up move will happen. Just the way it works.

As long as NQ is trading above 14450 here, this is still a long to me. We're trading above a big distribution zone pretty consistently, that has been where we have been selling off from a while now. There are very likely a lot of shorts trapped here.

Of course that is juxtaposed with larger charts still being overall crappy. So, how that math works out, have no clue really but this would typically be a good forced short covering setup, if you exclude the other factors which may make it fail.

 

[Concinnity]

I have NQ 14110-14210.00 big area below us on large chart if we just dump on fed as area of interest for potential long. In the event 14450 doesn't hold and this short squeeze setup fails.