ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
when Miami finally gets a bit cold, so does the market ! Someone run some stats on this lol
supper nippy for us here l.
Well the distribution zone offered one decent short(in the morning), one bad / difficult one and one near perfect(where we spent over an hour in the zone, this last one). They really got so many longs in there during that time, than once we candle closed below the zone trap was set and here is the result.
I caught the last one, which made my day. However, has some patience issues on the earlier trades, started shorting before we even got into the zone, afraid of missing it which was really stressful. My analysis is sufficient, if not really good most days, but as a trader really weak and a lot left to be desired still.
Use to get so annoyed at people who said emotions and risk management is king, but it really is. Doesn't matter how good your technical analysis is guys, if you have no plan you're just one mistake or one over leveraged trade from giving back all your profits or blowing up your account. You better 100% believe it.
what is your definition of a distribution zone ? LF asked this a week or so ago, but u blog as if we all trade the way u trade. The term distribution for me is only used in a pullback of an uptrend. That’s the classic definition. What is yours ?
Essentially a failed buy setup, that leaves a relative high uncleared (meaning typically if buy set up would work we would take out the relative high).
If that high has not been taken out and we candle close below the origination zone of the buy, than that becomes an area of trapped longs and also potentially aggressive sellers.
So, let's say this happens and we drop down a good bit, on a buy signal we typically come back and test into the zone. So I use that as a place to take profits on any long and also look for a potential short.
Since the larger charts have been in a sell for awhile, typically am more aggressive on taking the zones short. The 15283.50-15328.50 was from a failed buy set up on a rather large chart. So, this zone is what I used to take a short yesterday. Today buyers did get above the zone briefly, but again we candle closed back below it and move down. Than price went back into the zone and spent like an hour there (this is why I call it a distribution zone, because for me mentally that's what I see and how it seems to behave, of course maybe it truly isn't that, all I know is that it works well).
I truly believe some days are pre-planned. Meaning days like yesterday and today, probability based on a lot of different metrics and indicators was definitely saying sell, so I look to identify area's where they would take market to and try to entice more buyers so they have liquidity to sell into. Big players or however you want to describe them aren't coming into the market saying "hmmmm wonder if we buy or sell today".
Most of the time in the markets they are selling to buy. Lately they've been buying to sell. Days where you can identify this, makes trading easier.
Most of the time in the markets they are selling to buy. Lately they've been buying to sell. Days where you can identify this, makes trading easier.
Also, like some area's or levels have super high probability to be hit on days, when all factors align, but you have to account for temporary imbalances. Meaning if enough people get short looking for that level, it becomes a crowded trade and than you can become positioned with the dummies and part of the trapped traders. I am probably preaching to the choir, but that's why sizing is so important, particularly if swinging so you can allow for adds or adjustments, without having to exit the trade.
So, there is a pre-plan on a lot of days for big players, but "the random price action" to me is really just traders getting trapped and than forced out. Think of how you feel when you're in a trapped trade.... how often does the market "randomly" move and let you out? For me it's pretty rare like maybe one out of 20 trades if even that. Once trap is set, we pretty quickly go to the closest relative high or relative low on the chart you're trading the setup on.