ES Journal - 2021/2022

virtusa said:
I don't agree.

You need to know with a high rate of probability that you are at that moment at an extreme level. You only can see that in hindsight. Lots of fake signals. And each fake signal costs money (slippage and commission, plus the difference between entry signal and exit signal).

The success rate in a trend is much higher than in countertrend.
So that disadvantage should be compensated by a much better entry price. Which is almost never the case.

The formula to calculate expectation is very clear and shows where the problem is.
Winning rate and average profit against losing rate and average loss.

I did in past extensive tests on this and the trend following was always beating the counter trend in the long term.

What looks extreme now, in many cases, is later on just an intermediate extreme level. In countertrend you have no time to get out quickly if the signal is fake, as in general the market moves much faster against your position than in favor of your position.
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Investing? Yes, agreed.
 
Master Pu said:
H&S likely to fail, 60 min about to reverse
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Certainly possible, however market isn't open until Tuesday for 60 minute to show on charts. I did indicate that right shoulder would likely need more festering, so depends on what your definition of reversal is.
 
Laissez Faire said:
Could you clarify this? Maybe we all can learn something?

I don't typically use terms such as distribution/accumulation areas to describe what's going on in the market, so that might explain the confusion.

What I do know is that tops/bottoms are most certainly not always V/A-shaped and can take some time to form. Sometimes it's clean; often it's messy. It's not known to me that a top/bottom typically doesn't hold 3x in a row, but maybe this is something you did a lot of study on...?

Thank you.
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Essentially I am using other things to identify area's that have a higher probability to have actual meaning and to react, as oppose to another area that may look exactly the same on the chart, but based on #1 how we got there(days even weeks if using a Daily chart), #2 the time it took to get there and #3 how it reacted when we get there can tell me it is likely not the same as another area, double bottom or etc that may look a lot like it at first glance.


In other word's the fact that it is a double bottom or double top, really is irrelevant to me, because I am looking for certain factors that line up to trade the setup. Lots of times near double tops or bottoms though is where they will trap a lot of buyers or sellers, so most often these types of setups do happen around area's like that. Also, just to be clear regarding the top/bottom doesn't hold 3x in a row. I mean I found that generally true with most support / resistance particularly in intra-day trading. I agree with the other gentleman I don't necessarily trade that as a direct setup, but it's something to be aware of, as often your third hit fails and we will move aggressively further in that direction of the break.


As far as the distribution / accumulation that's just how my brain processes the levels and setup. You could call it resistance/support, area of interest, distribution / accumulation or whatever. Just the way it responds to the levels and zones, for me looks like we distribute into certain ones and accumulate at other ones(Given that we don't typically stay in the area to long and once we come out of it, we tend to get outsized moves).


15605-15987.25 was the distribution area on NQ Daily for me. However in order to get this level and make it have meaning to me, started way back on 12/22/21 and based upon the up movement, it created a zone below us, than once we started trading below that zone, I knew area above was going to be a potential area of interest or whatever you want to call it. That's why I've been mentioning the low (15605) as well as the high (15987.25) as area's I've been looking to short, or be more aggressive short if we get below / area below. Like wise if we regain one of these area's I tend to look for a short covering rally, because it shows sellers are losing control. That's why made comment on a little weird close for NQ, since we tested 15605 like 3x intra-day but barely had any short covering above it, furthermore why I said market still look pretty weak, given that.


Sorry for post being so long.....hopefully that made some sense and wasn't too difficult to read or understand.
 
Concinnity said:
That's why made comment on a little weird close for NQ, since we tested 15605 like 3x intra-day but barely had any short covering above it, furthermore why I said market still look pretty weak, given that.
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Consolidation? Before starting a new leg higher or resumption of the down move?
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Update on my Head and Shoulders top/reversal analysis---
Pattern remains intact, but not complete. I would expect a little more festering of the right shoulder in order for the pattern to complete. The rally late Friday afternoon was short covering and balancing prior to the 3 day weekend. It was not fresh upside momentum in my view. Note how the RSI Head and Shoulders has already completed and has been confirmed--
View attachment 275448
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Almost there now right? I can see quite a big retracement coming before a much bigger shorting opportunity. What do you think?
 
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