3:50 move came and held.... I can't see market closing here, wouldn't make such sense, still expecting some type of decent sized move here.
ES Journal - 2021/2022
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3:50 move came and held.... I can't see market closing here, wouldn't make such sense, still expecting some type of decent sized move here.
I was just about to update my comment, yeah after seeing ES Daily close makes sense. NQ close its a little odd though, We don't typically sit right under a distribution area for very long and this was essentially the third test of it today. Typically doesn't hold 3x in a row, just shows still pretty weak market in my view.
Could you clarify this? Maybe we all can learn something?
I don't typically use terms such as distribution/accumulation areas to describe what's going on in the market, so that might explain the confusion.
What I do know is that tops/bottoms are most certainly not always V/A-shaped and can take some time to form. Sometimes it's clean; often it's messy. It's not known to me that a top/bottom typically doesn't hold 3x in a row, but maybe this is something you did a lot of study on...?
Thank you.
Update on my Head and Shoulders top/reversal analysis---
Pattern remains intact, but not complete. I would expect a little more festering of the right shoulder in order for the pattern to complete. The rally late Friday afternoon was short covering and balancing prior to the 3 day weekend. It was not fresh upside momentum in my view. Note how the RSI Head and Shoulders has already completed and has been confirmed--
Pattern remains intact, but not complete. I would expect a little more festering of the right shoulder in order for the pattern to complete. The rally late Friday afternoon was short covering and balancing prior to the 3 day weekend. It was not fresh upside momentum in my view. Note how the RSI Head and Shoulders has already completed and has been confirmed--
I've done more testing on this type of thing than I'd like to admit, and there's no edge in any shape or form playing triple / quad tops and bottoms in ES. Its true that after 4 tops / bottoms, the next one is likely to fail, but its nothing more than something to watch out for. Not a trade setup
I don't agree.
You need to know with a high rate of probability that you are at that moment at an extreme level. You only can see that in hindsight. Lots of fake signals. And each fake signal costs money (slippage and commission, plus the difference between entry signal and exit signal).
The success rate in a trend is much higher than in countertrend.
So that disadvantage should be compensated by a much better entry price. Which is almost never the case.
The formula to calculate expectation is very clear and shows where the problem is.
Winning rate and average profit against losing rate and average loss.
I did in past extensive tests on this and the trend following was always beating the counter trend in the long term.
What looks extreme now, in many cases, is later on just an intermediate extreme level. In countertrend you have no time to get out quickly if the signal is fake, as in general the market moves much faster against your position than in favor of your position.
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