ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Yes--they are very important in my view.
Thank you! I'm trying to learn as much as I can.
While it's certainly possible that the market could bounce from here and make new highs, I just can't get long when the weekly chart looks as it does right now. We haven't had price touch the bottom weekly Bollinger Band now since March of 2020 and it would be high time to do so.
Reminds me of Gambler's Fallacy and Monte Carlo Casino: "Perhaps the most famous example of the gambler's fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913, when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence: the probability of a sequence of either red or black occurring 26 times in a row is (18/37)26-1 or around 1 in 66.6 million, assuming the mechanism is unbiased. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an imbalance in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red." - I quote from Wikipedia
It remind me of Monte Carlo Casino because because market has been hitting the "black" so long. Many people have shorting because it is "due to hit red."
Also reminds me of saying "market can stay insane longer than you can keep money in your account." I know that not the quote but something like it.
Better to trade what price is doing. Than what bollinger band is doing. No? I agree with you @Buy1Sell2. Market now weak and going down. But if Monday it goes up. I give up and join up. With bulls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
Not agreeing or disagreeing with the thesis, but when I see terms like "high time to do so",
I think about all the babies that have been conceived based on the words "trust me".
I think about all the babies that have been conceived based on the words "trust me".