ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Zwaen]

I don't know about the VIX.

Does it anticipate future? Or is it lower because market range smaller today?

Is it leading? When I look at it over long daily chart, looks like it is reactionary?

So maybe next week big move down in SPY. VIX then goes up. As reaction.

Maybe?

The vix is basically the view of traders of expected volatility. If its leading or lagging is difficult to answer easily I think. It just gives a glimpse of the puzzle by providing a number derived from spx option prices (23-37 days).
(although I read in the past some theories on volatility becoming a driver in itself because of deleveraging reactions, which can have snowballing effects (march 20))

 

[Master Pu]

Market is technically weak.

How? MacFd? RsFi? What does that even mean "technically weak"? Justification of your bias?

I mean, I get it when someone says stocks are overvalued when looking at classic fundamental parameters, but when someone says it looks technically weak, this I don't get. Where is the technical weakness?

 

[NumberZ]

Where is the technical weakness?

SPX tried, failed three days to get above 4800. Now SPX 4677. When prices go up that is technically strong. When prices go down, isn't that weak?

 

[virtusa]

When prices go up that is technically strong. When prices go down, isn't that weak?

That depends of their bias. Bias defines for most people their behavior, not objective information.
Crypto fans are the perfect example for that.

 

[NumberZ]

That depends of their bias.

That is separate from market technicals, right? You are talking psychological bias. A prejudgment in the mind of the trader. Not something indicative of the market. Itself?

 

[Master Pu]

SPX tried, failed three days to get above 4800. Now SPX 4677. When prices go up that is technically strong. When prices go down, isn't that weak?

So? Now it hit 50% range between double bottom of Nov & Dec and current high as well as it being 50 sma, it probably will reverse again and continue the upside. Market isn't weak, it's friggin strong.

 

[NumberZ]

it probably will reverse again and continue the upside.

But not wrong to sell short for the pullback, right? No buy signal bar on daily. Yet. Four days in row SPX lower highs. Three days lower lows. Can't be strong again until one day trades a higher high. Than the day before, right? No?

Market isn't weak, it's friggin
strong.

Maybe you are looking at different perspective than @Buy1Sell2? If he is looking for a few days or weeks, then market looks weak. If you are looking from pandemic bottom, then market "friggin strong", maybe?

50 sma

I read in William O'Neil's book. 50 day SMA and 10 week SMA important. So you use them? I will look at it more closely. Thank you!

 

[Buy1Sell2]

So? Now it hit 50% range between double bottom of Nov & Dec and current high as well as it being 50 sma, it probably will reverse again and continue the upside. Market isn't weak, it's friggin strong.

I called out the weakness prior to this drop.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

SPX tried, failed three days to get above 4800. Now SPX 4677.

EXACTIMUNDO.

 

[Builder17]

I called out the weakness prior to this drop.

Nice entry and stop on that trade