ES Journal - 2021/2022

[vanzandt]

You always have some good insights -- so I'm wondering if your intuition is actually at play here. You say you're leaning bullish -- maybe because that seems logical -- but I'm wondering if your intuition is telling you something else? Just curious because your tone of engagement is different. Am I making sense?

You are absolutely making sense because I am not sure and that's exactly why I asked you guys your opinions.

Leaning bearish using common sense, leaning bullish because oftentimes when every ounce of your existence is screaming at you to hit the sell (or buy) button, and there is no way you could push the other button... the other button is the one to push.

Not all the time though, only when you are 110% sure of your directional choice lol. That's when you push the opposite button.
And I am 110% sure we are heading down.
So this is one of those times you hit "buy".
Or.... stay on the sidelines. And there's nothing wrong with that.
We gotta be heading south though.

And @Overnight... there you go again lol... we all know Powell barks on Wednesday... but I for one am not taking the next 72+ hours off. Low volume indecisive markets leading into a major event are oftentimes the best time to play SPY and NQ. Decent moves either way that bracket a level. IF.... you can read a chart and catch those moves. We still have a vix around 20 ya know.

 

[formikatrading]

I corrected my original post to say you were leaning BEARISH but you picked up on what I was saying.

I think this is one of those "Denise Shull" or "Soros" moments where your intuition is kicking in but you might not be exactly sure how to process what you're feeling.

On the flip side, one of the things I try to do is pick up on traders' patterns. It sometimes gives me a sense of how to process market information. In any event, you just seemed "different" to me today in your earlier post so I immediately picked up on that.

You are absolutely making sense because I am not sure and that's exactly why I asked you guys your opinions.

Leaning bearish using common sense, leaning bullish because oftentimes when every ounce of your existence is screaming at you to hit the sell (or buy) button, and there is no way you could push the other button... the other button is the one to push.

Not all the time though, only when you are 110% sure of your directional choice lol. That's when you push the opposite button.
And I am 110% sure we are heading down.
So this is one of those times you hit "buy".
Or.... stay on the sidelines. And there's nothing wrong with that.
We gotta be heading south though.

And @Overnight... there you go again lol... we all know Powell barks on Wednesday... but I for one am not taking the next 72+ hours off. Low volume indecisive markets leading into a major event are oftentimes the best time to play SPY and NQ. Decent moves either way that bracket a level. IF.... you can read a chart and catch those moves. We still have a vix around 20 ya know.

 

[vanzandt]

I corrected my original post to say you were learning BEARISH but you picked up on what I was saying.

I think this is one of those "Denise Shull" or "Soros" moments where your intuition is kicking in but you might not be exactly sure how to process what you're feeling.

On the flip side, one of the things I try to do is pick up on traders' patterns. It sometimes gives me a sense of how to process market information. In any event, you just seemed "different" to me today in your earlier post so I immediately picked up on that.

you nailed it.

 

[Overnight]

...
We gotta be heading south though.

And @Overnight... there you go again lol... we all know Powell barks on Wednesday... but I for one am not taking the next 72+ hours off. Low volume indecisive markets leading into a major event are oftentimes the best time to play SPY and NQ. Decent moves either way that bracket a level. IF.... you can read a chart and catch those moves. We still have a vix around 20 ya know.

But this time, his bark may have some actual bite. He has been trying to pre-empt the markets by intimating what he is going to do, but the markets want to hear what he is actually going to do. Which is what this Wed. meeting with proffer.

As for reading a chart? Well, I just went through two 5% drops over the past 2 months on nothing but Omicron news (and a bit of Powell shake-out), which are minor compared to what could come pouring out of Powell's lips on Wed.

Being in a swing for two weeks and suffering a drawdown is the same thing as sitting out for two weeks while being flat. Only thing that gets hurt is the pride, if you don't over-lever.

At least I have some dry powder now.

 

[vanzandt]

But this time, his bark may have some actual bite. He has been trying to pre-empt the markets by intimating what he is going to do, but the markets want to hear what he is actually going to do. Which is what this Wed. meeting with proffer.

As for reading a chart? Well, I just went through two 5% drops over the past 2 months on nothing but Omicron news (and a bit of Powell shake-out), which are minor compared to what could come pouring out of Powell's lips on Wed.

Being in a swing for two weeks and suffering a drawdown is the same thing as sitting out for two weeks while being flat. Only thing that gets hurt is the pride, if you don't over-lever.

At least I have some dry powder now.

Well again, tell us something we don't already know.
This one's a biggy and that's exactly why Formika picked up on my ambiguity.

But for the next 72 hours (or however many before you correct me and say "its 68 hours").... there's a market to trade.

We all know the gravitas of Wednesday's show.

 

[Overnight]

Well again, tell us something we don't already know.
This one's a biggy and that's exactly why Formika picked up on my ambiguity.

But for the next 72 hours (or however many before you correct me and say "its 68 hours").... there's a market to trade.

We all know the gravitas of Wednesday's show.

You are a trader, I am not. That is where we differ. I am a bull in a China Shop and take the gruff path north.

You and Stoney are Tasmanian devils and trade trade trade. Here's footage of you guys trading...

Here's me as a swing trader, watching my screen...

We each have our gameplans for how we look at announcements, and where you see opportunity, I see a place to stay out. I'm choosing the sloth method until after Powell's ummagumma.

 

[vanzandt]

You are a trader, I am not. That is where we differ. I am a bull in a China Shop and take the gruff path north.

You and Stoney are Tasmanian devils and trade trade trade. Here's footage of you guys trading...

Here's me as a swing trader, watching my screen...

We each have our gameplans for how we look at announcements, and where you see opportunity, I see a place to stay out. I'm choosing the sloth method until after Powell's ummagumma.

After I wrote "its a biggie", I figured out a way to put it in your language.
It's the Billy Baroo of Fed meetings.
queued:

 

[Overnight]

After I wrote "its a biggie", I figured out a way to put it in your language.
It's the Billy Baroo of Fed meetings.
queued:

All depends on his language. Will he be a gopher, or will he be the groundskeeper?

 

[mervyn]

guys, just go with the flow, this is a price action thread, isn’t it? Chop 2% a day, 5x a year is the target.

I assume everyone has another long term portfolio with futures exposures, always go long there.

 

[Zodiac4u]

Still learning day trading. I hold more for days, weeks. So bias matters to me for that. "Bias" maybe not right word. Trend?

Do you only or mostly trade SPY options, Mr @Zodiac4u?

No, just Stocks, $SPY and $ES, the $SPY options can sometimes provide a good range direction,