ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

30 should stop this - if we get there. Probably a grinding day anyway.

 

[wiesman02]

Curious, How is this new strategy working for you?

been working great. How could it not ? Market doesn’t fall more than 1-3%. The key is to decrease size. I went from 4-6 ES down to 1.

 

[chillibean]

L 4528.5

 

[mervyn]

Everyone is waiting for the pullback, no risks/rewards until that happens. Since ADP number is bad, why would non-farm tomorrow be a good number?

 

[Overnight]

Everyone is waiting for the pullback, no risks/rewards until that happens. Since ADP number is bad, why would non-farm tomorrow be a good number?

Because the ADP number is an estimate and is not a leading indicator of NFP. Plus, the ADP does not include government employees. If you look back historically, the two numbers vary wildly in both sheer numbers, and also expectation divergences.

 

[chillibean]

L 4528.5

OUT here +13

hopefully get a dip and do it again

 

[chillibean]

L 4528

 

[Laissez Faire]

Reversal around 4520 or a larger slide...?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Going long 21.75. Nimble. Targeting 36/40, but need a break above 25 to feel safe.

EDIT: Looking to add on a pullback.

 

[Laissez Faire]

ATHs today would be unexpected, but we've seen a few of those lately.

Assuming the LOD is in and we see an Up Day - 38/40 would be a conservative bet. Outlier scenario would be 50.