Other that gamestop issue there is no fundamental trouble is it, am I overlooking?
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
I think if this macro zone 3700 can largely hold, mabe a nice Globex tail fuckery on the Snday open - could stage a rally to ATH's. Huge liquidation into the close would be another story, I think unlikely
Uncle Rico
@UncleRico77
Viking down 20%, Point 72 down 9%, Citadel down 15%, D1 down 30%
I really don't look at fundamentals. I just look at technicals and believe that fundamentals are reflected in the technicals.
I think the uncertainty is sufficiently factored in, but who knows what headlines may appear over the next few days
AAL is going through a squeeze as well. I'm sure there will be more.
I'm doing some homework now for the week ahead. I'm not going to attempt predicting the week ahead. Way too many possibilities. Some thoughts, though...
1. It seems like 'everyone' is bearish now and anticipates continued selling and even a crash.
From my point of view, looking at similar weekly patterns, trading below last Week's Low (3685,50) have a probability of about 75 %. However, only 2 of these similar weeks was a large week down (-6 & - 8 %).
What this means is we might very well dip below last Week's Low, but it's not a given that we'll crash lower or even trade much lower at all. We might very well consolidate around last Week's Low or we may even snap back up and a see a strong rally towards and even above Last Week's High for new ATHs.
2. 25 % of the following weeks didn't even trade below last Week's Low. This is information, too.
The key takeaway for me is that it's entirely possible that 'everyone' will be surprised next week to see the market not trade lower. And if Monday is a large day down, it's quite possible that it can stage the bottom for a rally higher into last week's range.
1. It seems like 'everyone' is bearish now and anticipates continued selling and even a crash.
From my point of view, looking at similar weekly patterns, trading below last Week's Low (3685,50) have a probability of about 75 %. However, only 2 of these similar weeks was a large week down (-6 & - 8 %).
What this means is we might very well dip below last Week's Low, but it's not a given that we'll crash lower or even trade much lower at all. We might very well consolidate around last Week's Low or we may even snap back up and a see a strong rally towards and even above Last Week's High for new ATHs.
2. 25 % of the following weeks didn't even trade below last Week's Low. This is information, too.
The key takeaway for me is that it's entirely possible that 'everyone' will be surprised next week to see the market not trade lower. And if Monday is a large day down, it's quite possible that it can stage the bottom for a rally higher into last week's range.
Thanks for your honesty. Its interesting this mirrors my day a lot thursday. crushed the am and then gave it back and more stubbornly holding and adding for 3830+. for me it was both overconfidence and greed. wonder how many others thought that way and then came that nasty afternoon waterfall into the close and beyond.