ES Journal - 2021/2022

Master Pu said:
Having watched the video by Mark Moss, it is pretty clear that out of the two options available to the FED, QE and lower interest rates will resume. Not a question of if but when.
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IMO not likely at all. If anything they may moderate rate rises, but not QT. They've only rolled off $200mill (of almost $9trill total) so far.
 
SunTrader said:
IMO not likely at all. If anything they may moderate rate rises, but not QT. They've only rolled off $200mill (of almost $9trill total) so far.
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I agree with his hypothesis because out of the two options available to them, a continuation of raising rates and no QE, would crash the economy way quicker than kicking the can down the road and potentially hyperinflating, self preservation will dictate policy to be chosen.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
I went long at the closing today, for a trade that I anticipate will carry us to the 4000 area. I don't follow news and made this decision on technicals, but I imagine that it is possible that the market is starting to realize that Democrats will lose power in both houses in just 2 and a half weeks. The technicals reflect that something is happening that should carry us higher with the weekly now showing upward bias along with the daily. Monthly continues it's negative bent and I look for this lift to eventually be beat down and I will look to short again in the future. I'm long from 3763.00. Mental stop for reevaluation at 3635.
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It's too early to tell if this trade will, in the end, be successful, but we are starting out well here up 25 pts. --Staying long for now.
 
Master Pu said:
I agree with his hypothesis because out of the two options available to them, a continuation of raising rates and no QE, would crash the economy way quicker than kicking the can down the road and potentially hyperinflating, self preservation will dictate policy to be chosen.
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Ok except I differ in that I believe The FED wants to crash the economy to crush inflation, then reflate somewhat after. Quick, painful but done. Easing off now only prolongs inflation with the economy slowing as well.

TWT
 
Opps my bad above where I said:

"They've only rolled off $200mill (of almost $9trill total) so far."

Make that $200bill {with a b} of $9trill total.

Mill, bill, trill "its only money" ... paper Monopoly money. :)
 
Laissez Faire said:
Another bad start of the week with sloppy trading, I'm afraid. Took a loss overnight on an early long with a too wide stop. One thing is knowing what to do. Another thing is to practice it flawlessly.

That said, I'm long again from 63 and will probably stop out around B/E in case we pull back even lower.

What's your take?
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We're indeed trading near the high as I write. I think your "forecast" is pretty good. Maybe it's the timing that's slightly off. Get that under control and you will be printing money in no time. :)
 
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