ES Journal - 2021/2022

Both my daily and weekly model give (very) good odds for continuation lower today, but it's obviously not always right. Obviously. And what's not a factor in that prediction is yesterday's double bottom on the daily. We can't rule out someone trying to put in a bottom or betting on one from this area giving at least a good bounce.

As a result, I'm conflicted and my confidence level isn't very high either way. So might just have to see where the day takes us and go with the flow.
 
Laissez Faire said:
Both my daily and weekly model give (very) good odds for continuation lower today, but it's obviously not always right. Obviously. And what's not a factor in that prediction is yesterday's double bottom on the daily. We can't rule out someone trying to put in a bottom or betting on one from this area giving at least a good bounce.

As a result, I'm conflicted and my confidence level isn't very high either way. So might just have to see where the day takes us and go with the flow.
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Given that you have a real job, I’d trade on days that add up or are more favorable. Example maybe huge gap up or down days etc. ok good luck. You have that luxury.
 
ElCubano said:
Given that you have a real job, I’d trade on days that add up or are more favorable. Example maybe huge gap up or down days etc. ok good luck. You have that luxury.
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Good observation. And I mostly agree.

Most of my losses comes from participating either on sub-optimal plays/days or when I'm not in a good state of mind to be trading. Such as Sunday night when I was about to hit the sack or a Monday morning before going to the office.

Thank you.
 
Laissez Faire said:
Good observation. And I mostly agree.

Most of my losses comes from participating either on sub-optimal plays/days or when I'm not in a good state of mind to be trading. Such as Sunday night when I was about to hit the sack or a Monday morning before going to the office.

Thank you.
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you can’t only play pocket aces but think of your odds of winning if you only did. Dale
 
ElCubano said:
you can’t only play pocket aces but think of your odds of winning if you only did. Dale
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I know a good trader who claims to be doing precisely that. Always out of the market when things aren't clear or the market is choppy and cleaning up when his play is setting up.
 
vanzandt said:
Market sense eyeing today's finish would say tomorrow we go up, but with that said, I can't say that with a lot of confidence.
Bear rally spikes happen until they don't.
We haven't seen the last of them, that's for sure... but there will come a day when the (BIG) drop comes out of nowhere.
I don't think tomorrow is that day however.
That day (and it will be swift and brutal when it does come), will only happen when the long term climb is once again ensured.

That said, these little ratchet moves.... I think tommo will be up.
If not... well... then we are going substantially lower because by all rights, tomorrow should be a bounce. Bear market or not. If we drop tomorrow... whew.
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I knew that dip wouldn't last. :mad:
 
Spiked above yesterday's LOD, but didn't hold it. NQ leading lower.

I have 3500 marked out on my weekly chart. Maybe we'll see it today, but it may be bumpy.

If we can see a good trend day lower we shouldn't trade above 3605 today from here.
 
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