ES Journal - 2021/2022

Oil has been going up since April 2020. Where is the negative bias?

newbie463 said:
I think the point of the question was............ Generally speaking, as oil prices increase, that has a negative effect on the indices. Therefore, I assumed @wiesman02 was asking, what macro factors might there be that are overcoming this generally negative bias. (negative bias on the indices not CL)

I could be wrong tho.
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newbie463 said:
I think the point of the question was............ Generally speaking, as oil prices increase, that has a negative effect on the indices. Therefore, I assumed @wiesman02 was asking, what macro factors might there be that are overcoming this generally negative bias. (negative bias on the indices not CL)

I could be wrong tho.
More...


Yeah, that's very possible. Was thinking that might be the case as well. But my comment was all inclusive to that for the most part. It's true I didn't offer a macro factor like he requested, regarding that (if he was speaking of indices) however, point was you really don't need one. Markets have been bearish for a while and Daily chart while still slightly bullish bias has very weak momentum and is struggling just to reach minimal benchmarks. Not very inspiring yet to long side and that's why am focusing some on CL for setups as well.

Also, he was a smart ass to me and didn't clarify. This will be my last comment regarding this, unless someone wants to be a smart ass again. I truly don't want to debate and argue, but if someone wants to be an ass, I'll glady match the energy.
 
wiesman02 said:
Any reason macro wise, why we are continuing to go up here with oil sitting around $112 ?
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My view is that if interest rates aren't rising that much, then anyone who was consuming a lot previously, will continue to do so, and that freely available credit will allow these consumers to continue to spend regardless of increases in oil prices.

The people most impacted by the increase in oil prices could be the really poor people who weren't consuming a great deal previously anyway.

Therefore unless there is a more significant interest rate hike, then spending will continue, but also inflation will continue. I don't think the fed is going to do enough to interest rates to stop inflation because it would cause too much of an impact to people on the edge of their borrowing capability. The market will continue to debate this, potentially causing sideways action for a long time.
 
Concinnity said:
Yeah, that's very possible. Was thinking that might be the case as well. But my comment was all inclusive to that for the most part. It's true I didn't offer a macro factor like he requested, regarding that (if he was speaking of indices) however, point was you really don't need one. Markets have been bearish for a while and Daily chart while still slightly bullish bias has very weak momentum and is struggling just to reach minimal benchmarks. Not very inspiring yet to long side and that's why am focusing some on CL for setups as well.

Also, he was a smart ass to me and didn't clarify. This will be my last comment regarding this, unless someone wants to be a smart ass again. I truly don't want to debate and argue, but if someone wants to be an ass, I'll glady match the energy.
More...

He did clearly say macro
 
c1rcle said:
My view is that if interest rates aren't rising that much, then anyone who was consuming a lot previously, will continue to do so, and that freely available credit will allow these consumers to continue to spend regardless of increases in oil prices.

Therefore unless there is a more significant interest rate hike, then spending will continue, but also inflation will continue. I don't think the fed is going to do enough to interest rates to stop inflation because it would cause too much of an impact to people on the edge of their borrowing capability. The market will continue to debate this, potentially causing sideways action for a long time.
More...

interesting take. Thank u for the response
 
2 great set ups nice and early…
9am OVB set up on the 15M & Hang man on 30M sell set up… double confirm .. good for 60+

Great buy set up off the 50% good for 25+ …

expecting sideways to down trading range going forward … great trading range anticipated both North and South!
 
Concinnity said:
Yeah, that's very possible. Was thinking that might be the case as well. But my comment was all inclusive to that for the most part. It's true I didn't offer a macro factor like he requested, regarding that (if he was speaking of indices) however, point was you really don't need one. Markets have been bearish for a while and Daily chart while still slightly bullish bias has very weak momentum and is struggling just to reach minimal benchmarks. Not very inspiring yet to long side and that's why am focusing some on CL for setups as well.

Also, he was a smart ass to me and didn't clarify. This will be my last comment regarding this, unless someone wants to be a smart ass again. I truly don't want to debate and argue, but if someone wants to be an ass, I'll glady match the energy.
More...
Nity , you need to be observing & listening vs talking / typing…. Wiseman knows what he’s doing… watch and absorb PA vs typing up a storm just to hear yourself speak!
Consider it sound advice … Good Luck!
 
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