ES Journal - 2021/2022

Didn't make as much as yesterday but still profitable. Same scenario caught the long but we failed to reach the typical target we get (not overly surprising given how bearish market is, but I am very happy I followed my plan and didn't chase).

So, again this time I missed all of the short since was expecting a little higher before I faded. But I didn't chase or anything. Just accepted what the market gave me and followed my rules. It's extremely rare I have a losing day when I follow my plan.

Congrats to those who faded earlier. Saw @Spooz Top 2 mentioning 4420. Very nice trades.
 
I really figured with Day #1 Fed catalyst (regardless if bullish or bearish) and/or with Day #2 that had a buy signal we would hit my Daily EMA. Pretty rare this doesn't happen, but I totally get why given how bad the larger charts look.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
3800 in play and I think we get down eventually to 3120.
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Last week I was trying to determine "fundamentally" what was a fair value for SP500 cash index. This is what I found on the internet.

Historically since 1990 the average PE multiple is around 23.4 - 4517
Historically since 1950 the average PE multiple is around 17.9 - 3456
Historically all time the average PE multiple is around 15.7 - 3031

the figure I found for trailing earnings was 193.06 which gives the corresponding index values.
 
After two days of not being able to reach Daily EMA I gave bulls benefit of the doubt and was not reward for it lol. Shorted some this afternoon just took every short setup I saw and ended the day making a little more than yesterday.

Bulls are going to have to at least touch my Daily EMA, if not candle close and/or trade above is strongly before I take long side more seriously. No need to fight this.

EDIT: Don't forget AAPL earnings today at 4:30 pm EST. In case anyone plans on holding overnight position.
 
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