ES Journal - 2021/2022

The goal for today would be to get down to about 3855 if possible. I'll hold short over the weekend provided that I am not stopped out.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Head and Shoulders pattern occurring on swing time frame. I look for lower pricings soon. So far, we haven't lost much with these "probe" shorts. I will continue and expect to have an extended gain soon.
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Head and Shoulders now complete. Lower pricings should be in the offing.
 
Laissez Faire said:
What this means is we might very well dip below last Week's Low, but it's not a given that we'll crash lower or even trade much lower at all. We might very well consolidate around last Week's Low or we may even snap back up and a see a strong rally towards and even above Last Week's High for new ATHs.

2. 25 % of the following weeks didn't even trade below last Week's Low. This is information, too.

The key takeaway for me is that it's entirely possible that 'everyone' will be surprised next week to see the market not trade lower. And if Monday is a large day down, it's quite possible that it can stage the bottom for a rally higher into last week's range.
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This was my predicted template for this week in the event that last week's low would hold. Not perfect, but not too far off, either. For next week, I'm thinking it's possible we'll see a trading range/consolidation. 3770 - 3940.

upload_2021-2-6_15-58-35.png
 
Laissez Faire said:
This was my predicted template for this week in the event that last week's low would hold. Not perfect, but not too far off, either. For next week, I'm thinking it's possible we'll see a trading range/consolidation. 3770 - 3940.

View attachment 251011
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A gap up Monday RTH of near 1% would be an easy, high confidence fade for me. Bullish sentiment, although not unwarranted, seems high. Further, statistically, I see prices just entering areas often associated with corrections on a short term horizon as well as prices closely approaching an area associated with deeper, long term corrections. On the weekly chart, we had one of the largest, in-trend, wide range bars ever last week, which may be an early sign of exhaustion. I say “In-trend” to distinguish from continuation bars after significant corrections. On the other hand, a relatively quiet consolidation week with a range of say, 3840 to 3920 may suggest underlying strength along with longer term bullish implications.
 
3 scalp longs done. Sub-optimal entry (01,50) on my last long, but I think I will be made whole. Exit @ 3904-05.

I intuit that we may have limited up-side today and should/could be seeing some consolidation after last week's monster move.
 
And out. Looks like a good day to do something else. My main hypothesis is that today will be a grind and range bound session with narrow ranges, but probably with a close above 3898.

Other scenarios would be a move higher or a drop towards 3880.

Good luck all. :)
 
The T-Day Boyz want their green, but this one may not close green. Potential reversal area, IMO. Could be one of those days where they pull the rug.

3911-3915 for my upside target. Let's see if we can get at least that first. Fairly range bound day so far. Cleaner up trend on NQ.
 
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