ES Journal - 2021/2022

Builder17 said:
Do you have a set P&L that broker liquidates at?
I have been toying with widened stop strategy lately but my results are unimpressive so far.
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Not really. I don't use daily loss limits any longer or fixed stops. It's the first time I've been liquidated externally by my broker and I did have a hard disaster stop in place just below where I was liquidated. In fact - I need to talk with them to clarify what happened as by my calculations I should have been okay, although I did obviously lever up a bit more than I should have. Usually, I will only average down 1 contract and preferrably I scale into a winner instead, i.e., add contracts on subsequent signals in my initial direction.

What's the widened stop strategy?
 
Getting some swings already. Following the ST cycle pattern pretty closely. We'll see if we get the low later today and then reverse back up.

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Laissez Faire said:
Op-ex / triple witching today. Last September that day was down. Arguably a day that's hard to predict, IMHO. Could swing both ways.
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Laissez Faire said:
Not really. I don't use daily loss limits any longer or fixed stops. It's the first time I've been liquidated externally by my broker and I did have a hard disaster stop in place just below where I was liquidated. In fact - I need to talk with them to clarify what happened as by my calculations I should have been okay, although I did obviously lever up a bit more than I should have. Usually, I will only average down 1 contract and preferrably I scale into a winner instead, i.e., add contracts on subsequent signals in my initial direction.

What's the widened stop strategy?
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Just not taking as tight of stops as I am used to (or should be taking). I tried using (self imposed) daily loss limits with moderate success last year. I would exit losers myself. However more often than not, I found I would liquidate a losing position near the end of move.
 
Builder17 said:
Just not taking as tight of stops as I am used to (or should be taking). I tried using (self imposed) daily loss limits with moderate success last year. I would exit losers myself. However more often than not, I found I would liquidate a losing position near the end of move.
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What's a tight stop for you on the ES?

For me - the idea is to use a stop that's outside of noise or random oscillations. In the past I would fool myself thinking I managed my risk by using smaller stops when all that happened was that I more often than not got stopped out of a profitable trade by noise and was left behind or re-entered at a worse price.

If being patient, selective and entering only at key levels/set-ups it is of course possible to get away with fairly small stops.
 
Laissez Faire said:
What's a tight stop for you on the ES?

For me - the idea is to use a stop that's outside of noise or random oscillations. In the past I would fool myself thinking I managed my risk by using smaller stops when all that happened was that I more often than not got stopped out of a profitable trade by noise and was left behind or re-entered at a worse price.

If being patient, selective and entering only at key levels/set-ups it is of course possible to get away with fairly small stops.
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yeah I agree with everything you said. Noise will depend on time frame. Small stops for me are 2-5pts (or scratching when PA starts to change my mind). but it really depends on time frame I’m trading, and that’s where things have loosened up a bit for me as I’m getting into more swing trades. But I tend to throw more contracts on as targets get closer, which some days add up nicely and other days get me into trouble. Its a work in progress and Im really still trying to figure out what works best with my personality and stupid ego
 
Builder17 said:
yeah I agree with everything you said. Noise will depend on time frame. Small stops for me are 2-5pts (or scratching when PA starts to change my mind). but it really depends on time frame I’m trading, and that’s where things have loosened up a bit for me as I’m getting into more swing trades. But I tend to throw more contracts on as targets get closer, which some days add up nicely and other days get me into trouble. Its a work in progress and Im really still trying to figure out what works best with my personality and stupid ego
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Time frame and current volatility, IMO. Unless your execution is perfectly timed - a 2 point stop is more or less a guaranteed stop-out - with a few exceptions of course. Even a 5 point stop would have been challenging on a day like yesterday. Equally, if your stop is too large and it's triggered once or twice you'll need a very large winner to off-set that.

Personally, I always start out the day small, unless I have a very strong conviction right off the Open. That way, I can easily lose 10 or even 20 points on one contract and easily make it back and then some trading more contracts later in the session. Or if I get it right I can have a pretty good day trading just one contract, too.

What stop size (or losses if you don't use stops) do other players currently use on ES?

Personally, I use 10 points as my disaster stop / initial points these days. If I'm close to getting stopped out I will assess the market and consider what I would do at that point if I were flat. If I I think that area is a good re-entry level, there's no use in taking a stop just for the sake of it, IMO. Yesterday, I was using 5 points on an entry near the afternoon LOD. No use using a very wide stop if you're picking a bottom.

Last two sessions with a 3 point zig zag. Tough to use tighter stops, unless you're using limit orders at strategic levels or otherwise have a means of identifying swing highs/lows with some accuracy.

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