ES Journal - 2021/2022

Spectre2007 said:
algo changed the fine tick tick intimations. Lot more noise in the tick movements, so you have to look at pattern recognition in larger timeframes. Tick to tick movements, you could read the emotions and intent.
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I'm a sucker for watching ticks and after hundreds of hours, if not thousands, you really do start to "feel" the movement.

The only issue I have is that the movement is sometimes very short lived. Sometimes you can see them want to break 4400 very badly lets say. Each time it jumps up, its pushed back down. Then you see barely an effort to even go up more than 2 ticks, so you figure the floor is about to break. But alas, after breaking and dropping just 2 ticks, out of nowhere, the buyers come in.

Now of course in my example I'm using a round number like 4400, since I would know to never short a key level, so context is king, but my point is that the "feel" you get from the market is almost like a woman where it changes on a dime. So although all signs point to going short over a few minutes of watching the lack of vigorous buying, it can switch on a dime.
 
NoahA said:
I'm a sucker for watching ticks and after hundreds of hours, if not thousands, you really do start to "feel" the movement.

The only issue I have is that the movement is sometimes very short lived. Sometimes you can see them want to break 4400 very badly lets say. Each time it jumps up, its pushed back down. Then you see barely an effort to even go up more than 2 ticks, so you figure the floor is about to break. But alas, after breaking and dropping just 2 ticks, out of nowhere, the buyers come in.

Now of course in my example I'm using a round number like 4400, since I would know to never short a key level, so context is king, but my point is that the "feel" you get from the market is almost like a woman where it changes on a dime. So although all signs point to going short over a few minutes of watching the lack of vigorous buying, it can switch on a dime.
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So how do you handle the sudden switch? If you are slightly late and trade in and out it's likely the transaction costs outweigh the profits.
 
My thesis is that by the end of year, SPX will hit 4550 so I am going to long December contracts when there is a correction. In the meantime, I can swing September contracts for 5-10 points.
 
chillibean said:
this ones a slow burn! Market kind of messing around recently.
Should get a big move up soon to get away from this area
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From the lows of 4226 we are now hovering near a 5% reach, may be that has to do with it. Think about it. Don't be caught long here. Anytime it can fold. But if nothing works jackson hole meet will be the likely trigger.
 
they make it too easy! Drop was overdone and buyers were always gonna step in hard
There's +5 already. Will close at +10 for a day trade and keep my swing long on for the bigger move
 
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