ES Journal - 2021/2022

I don't know what will happen BUT I can determine the reward / risk. And just because there is upcoming news doesn't change that. In a nutshell, we went into the FOMC with weak momentum and ST overbought. I don't know the news but if it is fathomable, I can deal with that. The things I don't know are natural disasters, assassinations, etc. So I am quantifying risk going into the FOMC and using the news as an opportunity, not something to avoid.

Note to @Laissez Faire. And I admitted screwed that up back in September. Not saying this is easy, just saying it's possible. The problem is that as traders we only look at the market through our own lens and our own style. I don't care how you make a buck. Schizo is pivoting from short to long all the time -- that's great! It's amazing actually. And I appreciate that. At the same time, I don't criticize him for doing that if it works for him.


schizo said:
Yes, I agree that you can trade around a news, but not during THE news like FOMC. There are many news that I disregard myself. But there are big ones that you need to be aware of, and possibly stay out of until the dust settles. Unless you have inside info, which most of us do not, you don't know what could happen.

But here's my point. The outcome is really simple. Either you were right or you were wrong. If you were wrong, however, you won't be able get out of your trade without incurring a huge slippage (as Lasseiz Faire already pointed out). You make it sound as if you could get out with a very minimal slippage. That is total nonsense. And that's what my gripe is about.
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formikatrading said:
I don't know what will happen BUT I can determine the reward / risk.
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No you cannot. If you put a stop, let's say at 10 points, and the news makes the market move in one time 20 points, your stop will not be executed at 10 points. So you cannot determine the reward / risk.
 
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