ES Journal - 2021/2022

[SunTrader]

The markets lately :-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597246880055930880

 

[SunTrader]

SunTrader recommending that people follow the trend is awesome info to pass along to people. It straight away increases the long term chances of success overall. Going against the trend and relying on luck creates bad habits.

Having said that, I think going long in that particular situation was the only sensible choice because even though the trend was going down, things were getting really oversold, and that would have been a poor entry point even when following the trend.

Well yes but I wasn't advocating going short, instead of long, at that point. The point to go short in a downtrend is ... higher during a correction.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I don't follow news much these days. What does the talking heads say about this recent downturn after what must have been a lot of optimism post FOMC?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Regardless of the talking heads - it's very unlikely we'll trade above 4005 today.

Main scenarios would be:

1) Inside Day mostly moving higher, i.e., a positive consolidation day

2) Continuation lower below 3920.

Waiting for price to confirm.

 

[SunTrader]

Looks like a gap fill day.

 

[SunTrader]

Done.

ES & RTY. Not yet NQ.

 

[SunTrader]

10yr yield down around 3.47% giving some juice to equities today.

 

[Sekiyo]

What's funny is market is still expecting 425 - 450bps
There is no shift in expectation about FOMC
This whole mess is a tough pullback.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Regardless of the talking heads - it's very unlikely we'll trade above 4005 today.

Main scenarios would be:

1) Inside Day mostly moving higher, i.e., a positive consolidation day

2) Continuation lower below 3920.

Waiting for price to confirm.

So, it was most likely scenario 1).

A quick 27,25 points on the Open. Most likely we'll just range around today for an Inside Day. That's what I see now.

 

[schizo]

Why we moving like this is an FOMC day? Some 5 minute bars >20 points.