Obviously, the market is always jigging back and forth. I wouldn't say 6 points on a 55,75 point range day is that much counter-movement, though.
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Obviously, the market is always jigging back and forth. I wouldn't say 6 points on a 55,75 point range day is that much counter-movement, though.
Agreed, but with NQ having just poked 11600, and a series of higher highs on the 1 minute clearly visible for both ES and NQ, it was a solid attempt at trend reversal.
In my experience, those reversals usually fail on a trend day down. Higher time frames were also suggesting otherwise, IMO, so I would be expecting any counter-move to be simply that. A counter-move.
I wouldn't short anything now, though. We hit 60,25 and that may be good enough for today regarding that open gap below. Close enough.
Beautiful trendline, but shit, it only works in hindsight because you used the swing points that you needed to in order to make it work. (not blaming you of course)
If I'm to draw in a bunch of others that are logical, it clearly doesn't work nearly as well. Only the red one, as you draw, makes it look like magic.
Well, the one I was pointing out was not drawn in hindsight. In fact, I used it in real time to monitor the current down trend. I didn't do anything special or curvefitted anything. Just connected the last two preceding swing highs on the 5-minute chart.
The 1-minute chart is more noisy than the 5-minute, so it will give you more noise and false signals.
Not sure I see anything wrong with the other trendlines you drew either. It's an imperfect tool, but clearly the trend have been down today and any attempts at reversing that have failed.
If you used higher time frames or something else as a guide you would perhaps not have expected those reversals to be successful.
I do like this if this is in fact the typical way you do it. Its something that easy to test and easy to follow. It clearly won't work all the time, but I like that its an objective and repeatable way to draw a trendline.
Another one
(Bloomberg)
Fed hikes
Federal Reserve policymakers stressed on Monday that they will raise borrowing costs further to curb inflation. Stronger-than-anticipated demand in the economy and the labor market “suggest a modestly higher path for policy relative to September,” New York Fed President John Williams told reporters. Meanwhile, at a separate event, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard — one of the central bank’s most hawkish officials — said he thinks “markets are underpricing a little bit the risk that the FOMC will have to be more aggressive rather than less aggressive in order to contain the very substantial inflation that we have in the US.”
(Bloomberg)
Fed hikes
Federal Reserve policymakers stressed on Monday that they will raise borrowing costs further to curb inflation. Stronger-than-anticipated demand in the economy and the labor market “suggest a modestly higher path for policy relative to September,” New York Fed President John Williams told reporters. Meanwhile, at a separate event, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard — one of the central bank’s most hawkish officials — said he thinks “markets are underpricing a little bit the risk that the FOMC will have to be more aggressive rather than less aggressive in order to contain the very substantial inflation that we have in the US.”