ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Huyang said:
May you please show your 11 entry points in a chart? Just curious, how about selling LH and buying HL? it has a higher winning prob than selling swing H and buying swing Low in both range and trending markets, right? Thanks.
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I'll see if I can find time for that later on, but I'm sure you'll see the major swings on a 1-minute chart.

Today is an expected rangebound / Inside Day with a positive Close. That prediction was posted yesterday.

So. A good day for buying lows and selling highs without being too greedy on profit targets.

I'm prepared that it can happen, but I'll still be slightly surprised if we trade (much) below yesterday's low from this point on. Looking for a close above 3394.
 
Laissez Faire said:
7. Buy swing lows and sell swing highs.
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This can work with markets that are trending intraday. The only problem is that detecting the swing has a bit of a lag...you'll never sell the absolute top or buy the absolute bottom. The other problem is that sometimes a swing is detected but it does not catch a trend reversal but only a PB. Nonetheless, if you put your stops at the recent high or low, it's usually results in only a small loss if they get hit. For this type of trading, it's important to have a good swing trading algorithm on your chart.
 
What a crappy day. I was being greedy again and wanting more. I have trouble telling a likely range/chop day from a trend day. Out of the six trades I took, four of them went 3-5 points in the money before coming back and stopping me out at breakeven. The other two were losers.
 
Kovacs said:
What a crappy day. I was being greedy again and wanting more. I have trouble telling a likely range/chop day from a trend day. Out of the six trades I took, four of them went 3-5 points in the money before coming back and stopping me out at breakeven. The other two were losers.
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It took a couple of years for me to learn how to identify whipsaw market and that skill helped me to avoid making any trade this morning while NQ was trading back and forth in a big range. I only began to trade and made few hundred $$$ when direction was clear afterwards.
 
QTrader20 said:
It took a couple of years for me to learn how to identify whipsaw market and that skill helped me to avoid making any trade this morning while NQ was trading back and forth in a big range. I only began to trade and made few hundred $$$ when direction was clear afterwards.
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I think my first three trades basically tell the story.

My first trade was the circles you see in the image. I saw price constantly being pushed back up 3396 on the 30-min so when 10:00am ET rolled around, I figured it was a long. I got in, you can see it went six points in my favor. The right thing to do would've been to realize 3400 is there and get out at 3399 but I bought more anticipating strength and it came back down and get me out at even.

My second trade was seeing the failed attempt at the breakout upwards and price collapsing. So I waited for a pullback and got short. Again, it went about 5 points in my favor and I didn't take it. Got out at breakeven. I think expecting more here wasn't entirely unreasonable given the reversal on the 30-min.

The next trade (highlighted in pink) is when I start being an idiot. You can see price goes right back into the range after my short. At this point, any sensible person should be saying, "Ok, wait, this is NOT working. The market's 'confused' and can't decide. Time to switch modes." But no, I go long (averaging down even!) instead and take a loser on that. At this point, I'm just chasing momentum mindlessly.

The next trade (next image, circles) was yet another breakeven trade that could've put me flat.
 

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Laissez Faire said:
Today is an expected rangebound / Inside Day with a positive Close. That prediction was posted yesterday.
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2 out of 3. Close, but no cigar. :p

Note that every rally since the 13th have failed.

I have 3290/87 as a possible target by end of week. Sold off quite nicely already in ETH.
 
Kovacs said:
I think my first three trades basically tell the story.

My first trade was the circles you see in the image. I saw price constantly being pushed back up 3396 on the 30-min so when 10:00am ET rolled around, I figured it was a long. I got in, you can see it went six points in my favor. The right thing to do would've been to realize 3400 is there and get out at 3399 but I bought more anticipating strength and it came back down and get me out at even.

My second trade was seeing the failed attempt at the breakout upwards and price collapsing. So I waited for a pullback and got short. Again, it went about 5 points in my favor and I didn't take it. Got out at breakeven. I think expecting more here wasn't entirely unreasonable given the reversal on the 30-min.

The next trade (highlighted in pink) is when I start being an idiot. You can see price goes right back into the range after my short. At this point, any sensible person should be saying, "Ok, wait, this is NOT working. The market's 'confused' and can't decide. Time to switch modes." But no, I go long (averaging down even!) instead and take a loser on that. At this point, I'm just chasing momentum mindlessly.

The next trade (next image, circles) was yet another breakeven trade that could've put me flat.
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Are you a scalper or a day trader? Most scalpers would exit for 2 points of profit in ES per trade. You'll expose to more risks if you hold for more or for longer period, especially choppy market conditions if you can't recognize it.

If you are a day trader, are you a mean reversal trader or a trend trader? If you are a trend day trader, you should be able to see intraday trend was getting bullish after 10:30am and so, the odds of a winning trade on the long side was better than on the short side today.
 
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