When you come to a fork in the road, take it.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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The sheep never believe in randomness.
& yet there needs to be a structure that they always believe in
the answer lies inbetween
1) Subscribe to a news squawk service so you can avoid trading during market moving news coming out.
2) Learn how to read price in a meaningful way. Treat market like a woman that you really love so you'd do your best to understand her behaviors.
3) This is the important part to make some money. You got to figure out high probability trades vs. low probability trades. If you don't or can't, I guarantee you'll never make consistent money.
Never made it to 3520 level. Moved in-line with short-term cycles.
The market isn't predictable 100% of the time, but there are quite a few setups and times where you can determine the outcome has a very high probability to end higher or lower.
There are cycles in the market and sometimes algo's aren't active and pull their bid which creates times where you should be short and / or avoiding longs. Also, there's short forced short covering setups that you can locate sometimes as well.
It's all about supply getting locked up, once sellers get trapped it causes the really fast spikes up that creates means reversion levels below that you can have reasonable expectation of market returning to, once you get a sell signal. That's also often where the market will bounce again after clearing those levels.
So, you only want to be trading when you have an advantage and you recognize the setup. If you'll notice the market often stalls near relative lows or highs as they collect shorts or collect longs "loading the bus" and testing supply than they either dump it or market rallies.
That's a lot of information, my only point is that the market isn't 100% predictable, but it isn't 100% random either.
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