ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Laissez Faire]

Who's buying the dip today?

I already did. Turned out it was not a dip.

The last few times a Thursday gapped down this strongly we traded back into yesterday's range 60 % of the time, but closed inside the range only 40 % of the time.

Visually, this looks very weak and looks like we can easily get another leg down here on the Open. We're pretty much back to where we were last Tuesday prior to that Trump tweet which sent the markets into a nosedive.

So, either a 10-20 point dump below 30 and a strong counter rally or a strong counter rally straight away. Need something more to confirm.

 

[trdes]

Looks like flush into close to me. Possible it's held up until after hours, but than I think good probability we have a further pullback overnight. 11748.25 NQ and 11628.00 would be area of interest.


EDIT: I still have no issues taking longs on smaller charts as they come, I am still small long here, but I won't be holding anything overnight.

Not claiming to be great, still growing as a trader and didn't have a short overnight, But news or no news the larger charts weren't in a position for a continuation long and we had overbought levels below us. As we discussed probability after 3:30 was a move down and did not want to be long overnight.


Today is going to be a tough day to trade I think, for me personally. But let's see what we can do.

 

[trdes]

11870-11890 is distribution zone above us here. So, just an fyi decent probability we stall here some on nq, or could even turn into a down move. Don't see a trade yet though.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I have 58/60 as the first 'major' pivot or potential HOD on the day. Should be interesting to see if it's paid any respect or if we can go all the way back to yesterday's LOD (72) by the Close.

 

[syswizard]

I see the XLF is back at $24.50. Right where it was in June
The massive up move to $25.50 was fun while it lasted.

Speaking of financials, with Morgan Stanley's earnings results comes this statement that their bond trading division was a huge money-maker. Are bond prices really moving that much ? Certainly not Gov't bonds.
They must be dealing in corporate high yield and junk bonds, right ?

 

[trdes]

I have 58/60 as the first 'major' pivot or potential HOD on the day. Should be interesting to see if it's paid any respect or if we can go all the way back to yesterday's LOD (72) by the Close.

I have 3459.50 as standard resistance on ES. But nq ran into a distribution area prior and really putting a lot of weight on ES.

 

[vanzandt]

Speaking of financials, with Morgan Stanley's earnings results comes this statement that their bond trading division was a huge money-maker. Are bond prices really moving that much ? Certainly not Gov't bonds.
They must be dealing in corporate high yield and junk bonds, right ?

Yeah I don't really follow bonds, I probably should though. I've had to pay a few though, to bail out idiot friends from time to time.

 

[trdes]

Not really a day I can post trades, like to do it to help keep myself honest and following rules but just getting in and out too fast. Still have 11628.00 Open to the downside, if we clear that overbought area, I'll look for a more longer term intra-day long, but likely not an easy long if it does work. Will have to go small and average into it.

Otherwise just going to take short / long setups as they come on smaller charts.

 

[trdes]

I have 3459.50 as standard resistance on ES. But nq ran into a distribution area prior and really putting a lot of weight on ES.

Big potential turning point here as ES 3457.00 resistance here so trading above that and particularly a close above it decent probability we get another leg up. I am shorting NQ in this general area getting in and out, but if ES closes above or starts to trade above it consistently will likely exit, just seeing if it breaks down here for a runner.

 

[trdes]

Big potential turning point here as ES 3457.00 resistance here so trading above that and particularly a close above it decent probability we get another leg up. I am shorting NQ in this general area getting in and out, but if ES closes above or starts to trade above it consistently will likely exit, just seeing if it breaks down here for a runner.

Yeah exiting runner for a loss here. Will be a while before this bar closes and if it does close above don't want to hold short through this potential next leg up.