ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I've pretty much covered all angles lol, that's not my intention. Just to be clear I am long and looking at 3:00 and / or 3:30 to add or take profits, if we move below 11937.50 I'll likely exit my remainder for a loss.
However, over all I don't like this and think after 3:30 we have decent probability to move down and I don't want to be long overnight.
However, over all I don't like this and think after 3:30 we have decent probability to move down and I don't want to be long overnight.
Stopped out B/E on the 1st. Got 'lucky' on the 2nd.
I think we put in the Week Low today and will see the Week High Thursday/Friday around 3550.
If I were really swinging this one - I suppose I should give it a bit more leeway, but I feel like taking some profits off and rather re-enter.
3483 or 3550.
A close above 3500 would be comforting.
Yup, I haven't did the backtesting in a while and forget the exact numbers, but statistically 3:00pm and even more so 3:30pm favors longs. So, I always watch for setups I know during those times for a long.
I think it's a smart thing to do, of course nothing is ever 100% and market may go up 100 ES points overnight, but better to play the odds you know and be wrong, than to guess and be right, because the later just gives you a false sense of skill and accomplishment and there's no way you'll be consistent enough to make a career or even any decent long term progress out of trading that way.
People focus on being right way too much, it's one of the most damaging things to a trader imo.
Well I am flat market not really going down as much as I expected after 3:30 yet. Anyways still looks same to me. Probability of after 3:30 being tough and wouldn't be surprised if we sold off some overnight / tomorrow down to the NQ levels we discussed.
I am about to wrap it up for the day.
Playing the odds now as I see it. Long from 83,50. Initial stop @ 60, but may move it if the trade goes in my favour.
I usually day trade only, but if I am to trust my weekly system we made the Week Low on Wednesday and I'm willing to take this bet.
That sell-off on FSLY tonight, you wouldn't think that would be a big deal, but it took a lot of stuff down in the AH's.
They filed an 8K after the bell tonight and re-stated their revenue forecast from like 73M to 71M.
I mean that's friggin nothing and the damn thing dropped 30%. And it took stocks like Twilio and DDOG with it.
This is interesting. No opinion, but the fact that one report can move multi-billion dollar companies....
I dunno, but I suspect there's a lot of overnight Robinhood "traders".... that just became Robinhood "investors".
Oh well....
Good.
Markets never change.
One thing's for sure though... expect some serious volatility in the naz tomorrow.
At least in the first hour or so.
Serious $'s will be won and lost.
NQ is good, but the big action will be on certain individual stocks.
If you can read a chart in one minute intervals and play accordingly... FSLY is gonna be wild tomorrow at the bell. Avoid the pre-market on it though. Only use it for tells.
The pre-market high will be an important level to note for later in the day.
-vz
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