ES Journal - 2019/2020

Laissez Faire · Oct 14, 2020

Long 74,50. Will add @ 70 if allowed. 65 is my stop on all.

EDIT: Stop @B/E. Will re-enter @ lower prices or in the same zone if stopped. Will hold overnight if I 'get lucky' for the next leg up.

syswizard · Oct 14, 2020

Laissez Faire said:
I'll go long @ 70 or when the next leg down culminates. Anything in between - I'll pass.

Don't know if you are going to get it.....Right now I see a triple bottom at 3472-73.
If we break the LOD, we may blow right thru 3470.

Laissez Faire · Oct 14, 2020

syswizard said:
Don't know if you are going to get it.....Right now I see a triple bottom at 3472-73.
If we break the LOD, we may blow right thru 3470.

We should be in a major support/bounce area if I did my homework properly. We're also overextended rangewise. Maybe we'll see 68,75.

trdes · Oct 14, 2020

Laissez Faire said:
We should be in a major support/bounce area if I did my homework properly. We're also overextended rangewise. Maybe we'll see 68,75.

Oh shit, that's right. I totally forgot yesterday I had 3467.50 as the second leg of overbought to clear on ES when we were both speaking of areas. I need to keep better records. Not sure it would of changed what I did, but it's stupid to forget about something so important.

EDIT: I think you're speaking of 68.75 to the upside? Either way I remember you had like a 70-72 area that was close to the 3467.50. Nice job catching this long so far, it left me behind.

Laissez Faire · Oct 14, 2020

trdes said:
Oh shit, that's right. I totally forgot yesterday I had 3467.50 as the second leg of overbought to clear on ES when we were both speaking of areas. I need to keep better records. Not sure it would of changed what I did, but it's stupid to forget about something so important.

This is what I posted prior to the Open today.

I would want to see a strong drop below 70 in order to change my mind, i.e., turn 'bearish'. As of now, today was just an expected down day to end this larger retracement lower and bounced off the anticipated area. Nothing dramatic yet.

Still a good 90 minutes left today, so let's see how it turns out. Shit could still hit the fan.

My weekly model suggests a 40 % chance we'll trade down to last Friday's Close (3468,75), but an 80 % chance we'll trade below 3474. However, the Week High should come in on Thursday/Friday and the odds are very high we'll close higher than we opened and in the top of the range.

Based on this and the visual picture - it's my expectation that today will possibly be another consolidation or down day before we head higher by end of week. A stronger Open than we're currently due voids that and probably sets up the buy already today.

Laissez Faire · Oct 14, 2020

You'll get your second chance now, @trdes.

trdes · Oct 14, 2020

Laissez Faire said:
You'll get your second chance now, @trdes.

I am going long NQ, but getting in and out really fast on some as trading smaller chart so too fast to post.

Laissez Faire · Oct 14, 2020

Triple bottom.

LOD in and rally or a flush into the Close?

trdes · Oct 14, 2020

This looks really suspect to me, so taking profits on up moves.

trdes · Oct 14, 2020

Laissez Faire said:
Triple bottom.

LOD in and rally or a flush into the Close?

Looks like flush into close to me. Possible it's held up until after hours, but than I think good probability we have a further pullback overnight. 11748.25 NQ and 11628.00 would be area of interest.

EDIT: I still have no issues taking longs on smaller charts as they come, I am still small long here, but I won't be holding anything overnight.