ES Journal - 2019/2020

trdes · Sep 30, 2020

trdes said:
Need to be careful now, trading back below 11365.00. Need back above it asap still have 11394.75 open 11381.00 already been cleared.

There we go 11394.75 cleared as well now. That's all the means reversion levels cleared, anything else just a possible continuation / trend following. long.

trdes · Sep 30, 2020

formikatrading said:
I saw same potential area of support as you -- just don't like the technicals here yet.

Yes it looked tough, and was as mentioned, but I factored in larger charts still being relatively decent and we have 11381.00 and 11394.75 means reversion levels above and those generally have about a 72.8% chance to be filled intra-day.

Should of held more longer, but hindsight always 20/20

trdes · Sep 30, 2020

11420 - 11440 is a distribution area much like the 11345-11365 was an accumulation area, So this will likely be difficult to get above here, not sure it's really a good short area. I probably will skip this one, would need to an actual sell signal too much bullish momentum for me to jump in aggressively.

formikatrading · Sep 30, 2020

Good call trdes!

I had that support level - I just didn't have a good read on the momentum but in hindsight, I should have scaled size down with a buy limit order there.

trdes said:
Yes it looked tough, and was as mentioned, but I factored in larger charts still being relatively decent and we have 11381.00 and 11394.75 means reversion levels above and those generally have about a 72.8% chance to be filled intra-day.

Should of held more longer, but hindsight always 20/20

tiddlywinks · Sep 30, 2020

formikatrading said:
Great question and I don't profess to be an EWT guru -- I only use it when I see obvious patterns as opposed to others who try to label every iteration. If I see patterns that fit with the market structure I'm seeing, I'll call them out.

I think the identification of a wave is also dependent on my view of all the other tools that I use such as measured moves, fib levels and various momentum / oscillator indicators. So in real-time, for instance, I could see the NQ pullback after hours / pre-market hitting levels where my momentum indicators suggested we should find support so it led me to believe that was setting us up for that wave 5 up today. Also, once I saw that wave 5 was breaking into another wave 5, then I could also see that this move up was about done. So I'm looking for various levels to come into play as this market pulls back and I may not know for sure whether those levels will hold or not -- sometimes I just buy and trail and I end up being proved wrong. Does that make any sense? In the end, I'm just trying to find an edge and reduce the downside. I'm not perfect. Also, some intuition comes into play but that comes from experience.

Happy to talk more on this in PMs, etc.

Thanks for the response.

Through the filters of my own (ancient and limited) EW knowledge and usage experience, it makes perfect sense... EW is subjective. Usability is dependent on unrelated/unofficial inputs. All of which is why my EW knowledge and usage remains ancient and limited.

Thanks again.

Trade On!

trdes · Sep 30, 2020

trdes said:
11420 - 11440 is a distribution area much like the 11345-11365 was an accumulation area, So this will likely be difficult to get above here, not sure it's really a good short area. I probably will skip this one, would need to an actual sell signal too much bullish momentum for me to jump in aggressively.

Minor sell signal coming in here @11346 so will short some if goes above 11452 or closes above 11440.00 just going to get out. Not interested in fighting it or giving back my hard earned gains.

EDIT: Ops meant 11436

trdes · Sep 30, 2020

trdes said:
Minor sell signal coming in here @11346 so will short some if goes above 11452 or closes above 11440.00 just going to get out. Not interested in fighting it or giving back my hard earned gains.

That's really kind of lucky, didn't realize it was almost 4:00pm but I'll take it. My trades never work out this clean.

Laissez Faire · Sep 30, 2020

Look at that rally off the lows! As long as we open inside range - tomorrow should be a positive day, too. I don't think we have the Week High in yet. Probably tomorrow.

syswizard · Sep 30, 2020

trdes said:
11420 - 11440 is a distribution area much like the 11345-11365 was an accumulation area, So this will likely be difficult to get above here, not sure it's really a good short area. I probably will skip this one, would need to an actual sell signal too much bullish momentum for me to jump in aggressively.

Nice call...we made a double top right at 11440 right before the 4 pm close.

trdes · Sep 30, 2020

syswizard said:
Nice call...we made a double top right at 11440 right before the 4 pm close.

When markets are moving fast and algo's are extremely active, that's when my concepts / view works best. I generally try to only post when I see something clearly and it has a high probability of working out, of course as we all know nothing is 100%.

Can be difficult to post in time when markets are moving this fast, but both the long and short was able to post ahead of time and it helped me honor my rules and take the trades.

Just here to share some concepts and hopefully add some value and get some in return. I am always improving / looking to improve and recently I've made a lot of progress.

See you guys later have a good evening.