ES Journal - 2019/2020

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So, let's take a closer look at this allegedly healthy pullback. In my mind - there's a great deal of difference between a week that sells off softly from Monday through Friday versus one which drops the same amount or more in one or two days.

It might very well be the difference between a healthy pullback and a change of direction.

So, let's take a closer look.

This week printed the Week High on Wednesday and the Week Low on Friday. Since 2005 - this alone have not happened very often. About 5.5 % out of all weeks.

If we further require that the Week also made a new ATH - this have only happened 9 times since 2005.

The last time this happened was at the very top in February. Week 8 ending the 21st.

However, if we add in the sheer magnitude of this weekly drop and the filters above - this week is pretty much unparallelled over the last 15 years.

Healthy pullback? I think not.

What from here? Only God knows, but I don't think anyone should be surprised to see further continuation below from here.
 
vanzandt said:
For what this is worth....

To a great, great extent we are at this level on the backs of shorts. We are.

One of my all time favorite quotes on ET came from @comagnum ... "The market won't stop going up until every last short is dead". Not sure if he's the first one to say that, but it is in fact true.
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You might wanna rephrase that. That's just one side of the coin. It's more about the balance of real vs speculative money. Selling can take prices lower just as selling can take prices higher. Same logic with buying. And then you put those together. It's all a matter of "client (trader) quality" so to speak.
 
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