ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Flat @ 59 for + 8.
It looked good for a while.
Still finding a bid here, so might re-enter long. More cautious to the short side today.
It looked good for a while.
Still finding a bid here, so might re-enter long. More cautious to the short side today.
Probably not going to pick a bottom on this one, though.
Should be more than enough juice above 3366 if we get there.
Should be more than enough juice above 3366 if we get there.
Looks good for 85 + today if we can take out 67,50 with some conviction here.
But the 'danger' below isn't over yet.
But the 'danger' below isn't over yet.
Inside Days are generally rare.
2 Inside Days in a row are far more rare. About 4 % odds of that.
So - yesterday's High or Low?
Place your bets.
Not sure your calculation is correct here. On wednesday the 4% odds are valid for inside days on thursday and friday. But now thursday is a fact I think the odds for today are the same as for any other day. Rolling 6 two times in a row is 1 chance out of 36. But after throwing a six the odds for the second dice are 1 out of 6.
It's an interesting topic actually whether you can or not compare. If you say you cannot compare since market is fundamentally different, then why calculate the odds in the first place?
So, you're saying the markets are as random as a dice throw?
I say they're not.
And I say there's a relationship between what happened yesterday or the days before and what's happening today.
So, when I mention the odds of 2 Inside Days in a row I'm not computing it as they're independent outcomes.
I understand what you mean but the consequence of that is that the raw odds for all statistics are worthless and you should define all odds in relation to the previous days or whatever you want to take into account. So the 4% would also depend on what happened earlier this week and as such is useless on its own.
As I said: interesting topic and a lot more complex than one would think initially.
As I said: interesting topic and a lot more complex than one would think initially.
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