ES Journal - 2019/2020

[tiddlywinks]

I have no data to support my comments, only knowledge.

As gaslight more or less stated, you need to know the order in which the bar extremes occur. Looking only at conventional data points, OHLC, is incomplete in this regard. Time would be a further criteria once the order of bar extremes is known.

Formation of most bars BEGINS as inside bars and morph from there. If/when an inside bar morphs into another type of bar, that bar can not return (never, as in 0% chance) to being an inside bar. A similar law applies to outside bars... once a bar has become an outside bar, it can not become (never, as in 0% chance) anything else: It will be an outside bar. To be thorough, discussion of Doji or other "identification" is not applicable here as those identifications are not bar formations. An outside bar or an inside bar or just about any other bar formation can be a doji, for instance.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I have no data to support my comments, only knowledge.

As gaslight more or less stated, you need to know the order in which the bar extremes occur. Looking only at conventional data points, OHLC, is incomplete in this regard. Time would be a further criteria once the order of bar extremes is known.

Formation of most bars BEGINS as inside bars and morph from there. If/when an inside bar morphs into another type of bar, that bar can not return (never, as in 0% chance) to being an inside bar. A similar law applies to outside bars... once a bar has become an outside bar, it can not become (never, as in 0% chance) anything else: It will be an outside bar. To be thorough, discussion of Doji or other "identification" is not applicable here as those identifications are not bar formations. An outside bar or an inside bar or just about any other bar formation can be a doji, for instance.

Dude. You're kind of stating the obvious.

An outside bar cannot become anything else? Well - thanks for sharing that!

 

[Laissez Faire]

Days up-in-a-row can last only so long, before you get days down-in-a-row. The markets are now going to be digesting a Biden-Harris potential win. Not good for the markets.

Mark it, dude.

Screw you, dude. I was drinking wine and checking ET on my cell phone and now had to log on to my trading station just because of you. Just kidding (or maybe not). No, seriously. I'm kidding.

Exciting times for sure. Regardless of all that - I think the bullish sentiment is simply very strong right now. Let's be real. We shouldn't be at these levels anyhow. Yet we are. Have the conditions that have taken us this far changed? I think not.

Facts:

1. We've been up more than 7 days in a row in the past without a correction.

2. The last time we were up 7 days in a row - the next day closed higher 64 % of the time.

3. The last times we had an Outside Day like today - we closed higher 11/18 times the next day.

However, only twice did we take out the prior day's High.

So while it's not 0 %, maybe you will be right that we won't take out today's High tomorrow.

The general odds after what transpired today ain't particularly bearish though.

Too lazy to check my weekly model now, but I think we still look good for new highs by end of week here.

 

[tiddlywinks]

Dude. You're kind of stating the obvious.

An outside bar cannot become anything else? Well - thanks for sharing that!

You're Welcome!

 

[Laissez Faire]

Seriously?

You can't make this stuff up. Oh wait ...

Dude. When did you ever contribute anything of value?

As far as I can see, @Buy1Sell2 is a far better trader than you. Yet, you mock him in his own journal without ever having posted a trade yourself?

Last week I posted quite a few trades and pretty much nailed the entire week with a blotter to prove it (56,50 points). Not a word from you or my critics then.

Then, when I post a few scratch trades today you're trying to mock me and post a picture of falling knives?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Is it correct to assume today is a valid attempt?? The first of six?

Today was the first attempt.

 

[Builder17]

Screw you, dude. I was drinking wine and checking ET on my cell phone and now had to log on to my trading station just because of you. Just kidding (or maybe not). No, seriously. I'm kidding.

Exciting times for sure. Regardless of all that - I think the bullish sentiment is simply very strong right now. Let's be real. We shouldn't be at these levels anyhow. Yet we are. Have the conditions that have taken us this far changed? I think not.

Facts:

1. We've been up more than 7 days in a row in the past without a correction.

2. The last time we were up 7 days in a row - the next day closed higher 64 % of the time.

3. The last times we had an Outside Day like today - we closed higher 11/18 times the next day.

However, only twice did we take out the prior day's High.

So while it's not 0 %, maybe you will be right that we won't take out today's High tomorrow.

The general odds after what transpired today ain't particularly bearish though.

Too lazy to check my weekly model now, but I think we still look good for new highs by end of week here.

I would assume (without research) that the two times the high was taken out would be in environments like this near highs/ parabolic moves. I Appreciate your stats

 

[Spooz Top 2]

Dude. When did you ever contribute anything of value?

As far as I can see, @Buy1Sell2 is a far better trader than you. Yet, you mock him in his own journal without ever having posted a trade yourself?

Last week I posted quite a few trades and pretty much nailed the entire week with a blotter to prove it (56,50 points). Not a word from you or my critics then.

Then, when I post a few scratch trades today you're trying to mock me and post a picture of falling knives?

It was a ludicrous statement by B... no one knows how many attempts... if any... it will take to push to ATH`s ... If anything is going to leave you confused.. It`s that!

 

[NoahA]

You can always spot the losers from the winners very easily here... The losers are always looking for free lunch & try poor attempts to provoke the winners into giving it to them.... The winners spot the losers/suckers in their first 5 posts here while they stumble around looking for that free meal.... looking malnourished for a winning trade!

I'm not sure how well your calls are going to feed me when you post the entry and exit both way after the fact.

Yesterday you say you want it to get 44.50-47 to get long. Well it didn't get there, but you magically say after the fact that you scaled in and hence were already in, even though it didn't hit where you were gonna get long. We have to wait a whole 45 minutes to actually see that you got in, and apparently higher than where it got to since it didn't even get there. Wow... awesome call!

Today you say to short 75 and over right at the open, but you don't mention that you are already short. You wait until later in the day to produce a fill for your 3 lot. And right after this post you make the bold bullish signal, followed up with the statement that there are lots of possibilities. So now you're in the position of showing shorts, and saying a bullish signal, so really, by the end of the day, you could take credit for anything. You could have said you exited the shorts and followed up on your bullish signal, or you could have said you held the shorts.

Then of course your regular method seems to be scaling in, so that you have a wide range of prices to pick from, and other trades you say the market only gave a few points, so you are happy taking 4 points. Once again, all bases covered.

Can you explain to me how your posts are feeding anyone?

 

[amsterdam]

@NoahA - Drop it bud....what a waste of time this is.
He literally shared his trade deck on that short...he's also contributed an exponential amount to this thread compared to your 26 posts....just drop it man, nobody here wants to read this crap.

We should all focus on one thing and that's reading this bitch....
Share trades, levels, forecasts but drop the hate...

@Spooz Top 2 - Brilliant call on the outside day!