he wasnt criticizing he was trying to understand from what it seems like.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
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he wasnt criticizing he was trying to understand from what it seems like.
On the subject of forecasting. The reason I went long at the 59-60 level was that we were at a key level and my intraday model said the odds of a new LOD were about 5 %. I'd take those odds again. 
Anyway.
I just checked the odds of a day not yet an Outside Day becoming an Outside Day after 15:00 when we're still trading above yesterday's range at that point in time.
Out of 335 days that has never happened until today.
If I'm wrong - I'd love if anyone can show me as it means I have an error in my dataset. I'm feeling fairly confident though.
Anyway.
I just checked the odds of a day not yet an Outside Day becoming an Outside Day after 15:00 when we're still trading above yesterday's range at that point in time.
Out of 335 days that has never happened until today.
If I'm wrong - I'd love if anyone can show me as it means I have an error in my dataset. I'm feeling fairly confident though.
No offense to him, but his level of skill more than 50% of the time has been a post about his entry and exit, all after the fact. Its just too convenient that he likes to scalp for just a few points when that is all his trade got, and on bigger moves he all of a sudden is scaling in.
Perfect example here, all posted after the fact for just 4 points.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/es-journal-2019-2020.328086/page-2770#post-5175569
Trading is not a game of observation as he likes to say. Its a game of placing trades. Where you place those trades makes all the difference. I'm more than happy to be proven wrong, but when I see 75% of his trade calls be made after the fact, and many of his posts just pointing out interesting areas where no trade is called, I don't see this as proof of skill level. I see it as proof of distract and disguise.
Just for the record, I went short at the 3372 double top from the opening high. I added to my shorts at the inability to hold the 3357 previous day high. Look at those series of lower highs after the initial bounce off this level. When 3350 broke clean, it gave me confidence to continue to hold. Its fun when to talk about it after the fact, isn't it?
The S&P 500 and the emini both did trade into yesterday's range today around 10:00 AM EDT.
And it did not happen today either, as price did overlap yesterday's range early in the session.
Look instead for instances where the market makes the higher high first, followed by the lower low after 3:00 PM.
There is never a 0% chance of something happening in the market.
Yes? Did I state otherwise?
Are you being philosophical or practical?
Regardless, show me then when we had a day similar to today based on the parameters I outlined.
You can always spot the losers from the winners very easily here... The losers are always looking for free lunch & try poor attempts to provoke the winners into giving it to them.... The winners spot the losers/suckers in their first 5 posts here while they stumble around looking for that free meal.... looking malnourished for a winning trade!
There is a 0% chance of the YM and NQ reaching today's highs, tomorrow.
There is a greater than 50% chance that the markets will plunge deeper into the red from today's close, by tomorrow's close.
Mark it, dude.
We had 7 days up in a row, yes?
Not the end of the world yet.
Days up-in-a-row can last only so long, before you get days down-in-a-row. The markets are now going to be digesting a Biden-Harris potential win. Not good for the markets.
Mark it, dude.
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