ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Weekly forecast updated by Wednesday's Close:

- Week Low in = 100 %

- New Highs = 71 % chance

- Closing Higher = 86 % chance

Current weekly range at 46,75 is way below recent averages.

So was yesterday's RTH range (2nd smallest so far this year).

My view is that Wednesday was a consolidation and that we'll print the Week High on Thursday or Friday. Best guess would be 3340 or 3350.

FWIW, the weekly model isn't based on charts.

Jobless claims one hour prior to the Open. Everyone knows they're gonna suck. Bad news will get shrugged off. And if they're slightly less worse than expected - what a great excuse to rally.
 
Long 3308 with stop @ B/E. Will probably re-enter if stopped as we could pull back deeper than this. Might go down to 3300.

upload_2020-8-6_13-15-43.png
 
Laissez Faire said:
Long 3308 with stop @ B/E. Will probably re-enter if stopped as we could pull back deeper than this. Might go down to 3300.
More...

Stopped B/E.

Back in long at 09,25. Stop @ B/E.

Going to take a few stabs on the long side here, but not comfortable with a wide stop.

EDIT: And stopped again.

Let's see if we go all the way down to 3300 now.

Will try to re-enter a long, but probably won't post it. Generally, I manage my positions actively, so posting trades is a bit cumbersome.
 
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Huge stop run begun under 3312. Easily seen on the 60 min chart. I would expect a slight dip under 3300 to be bought. If not, we could be in for a significant sell off
 
Opening above 3111,25 and holding that level would be ideal. The anticipated scenario then would be range expansion upwards, i.e., 3330 or more.

Failure to hold 3111,25 on the Open probably sets up 3300 again.

At least that's how I view it...
 
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