ES Journal - 2019/2020

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This market is at an unexpected crossroads. One would have thought the President and the GOP Senate capable of connecting the dots between the performance of the stock market and the surprising relative strength of the economy given the pandemic conditions and the Federal unemployment insurance plus-up. They do not. This is very simple: Extend the full benefit and market sees new highs. Cut the benefit while delaying implementing even the reduced benefit by as few as two weeks, and the permabears will eat an extravagant feast, at least those still with capital remaining after having shorted the most epic bull swing in recent history.

There are people today still comfortably employed who do not realize that their payroll has been subsidized by PPP funds which are now also depleted.

There are people comfortably employed today only because the unemployment plus-up has allowed consumer spending to remain relatively strong in the face of the pandemic.

There are a lot of comfortable people today who are about to become very uncomfortable, and it will be uncomfortable for all of us eventually, unless the politicians let go of their antiquated ideology and learn to govern for the circumstances are we are facing.

No new highs for the emini until a deal is made, or credible rumor that a deal is imminent. The wrong type of deal, and it will be February-March all over again. The right type of deal and it's butterflies and unicorns, even if the butterflies are actually moths and the unicorns bite.
 
Gaslight Capital said:
This market is at an unexpected crossroads. One would have thought the President and the GOP Senate capable of connecting the dots between the performance of the stock market and the surprising relative strength of the economy given the pandemic conditions and the Federal unemployment insurance plus-up. They do not. This is very simple: Extend the full benefit and market sees new highs. Cut the benefit while delaying implementing even the reduced benefit by as few as two weeks, and the permabears will eat an extravagant feast, at least those still with capital remaining after having shorted the most epic bull swing in recent history.

There are people today still comfortably employed who do not realize that their payroll has been subsidized by PPP funds which are now also depleted.

There are people comfortably employed today only because the unemployment plus-up has allowed consumer spending to remain relatively strong in the face of the pandemic.

There are a lot of comfortable people today who are about to become very uncomfortable, and it will be uncomfortable for all of us eventually, unless the politicians let go of their antiquated ideology and learn to govern for the circumstances are we are facing.

No new highs for the emini until a deal is made, or credible rumor that a deal is imminent. The wrong type of deal, and it will be February-March all over again. The right type of deal and it's butterflies and unicorns, even if the butterflies are actually moths and the unicorns bite.
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There’s zero chance the $600 is extended . They might settle on $300-$400. I’ve talked to at least 25 service workers(restaurant,retail) who are making less than the $300 a week cutoff . There also collecting $850 a week or so of unemployment . When you give a tax cut to a corporation or billionaire the money’s never used . When you give this $600 extra to the guy on the street it’s used immediately.
 
SammyJ said:
When you give a tax cut to a corporation or billionaire the money’s never used . When you give this $600 extra to the guy on the street it’s used immediately.
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Tax cuts to corporations are used to buy back shares rather than increase worker wages. Your last sentence is precisely my point: What has saved the economy these last four months from depression levels of unemployment and demand destruction is the $600 plus-up. I am beginning to suspect that the Republicans either flat out do not want to win in November, or they are really as ignorant as the ignorant can be. It does not help that Trump has selected clowns like Kudlow and Moore as economic advisers. Trump has been poorly served by the Republican establishment, Mnuchin, and his ideological economic team. His instincts are, or at least were correct, but they have been usurped by Republican orthodoxy.
 
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