That`s precisely what it is... someone whom takes a stance/ position/ viewpoint opposed tp the masses popular opinion.... I see that as a damned good thing T-dub!
.... & I hope that you & VZ are correct.....
ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
That`s precisely what it is... someone whom takes a stance/ position/ viewpoint opposed tp the masses popular opinion.... I see that as a damned good thing T-dub!
.... & I hope that you & VZ are correct.....
The YM is 3000 points short of it's ATH. Of course it won't make a new one! You are silly.
Yes... I accidentally over sold some at 47 this afternoon as I was scaling out a couple... didn’t check my size window... that said, I’m doing my typical bottom fishing on the over night... buy scale into the buy zone right around where ur looking and bit higher.....
Today, tomorrow, but whenever it is, I agree with you and @Buy1Sell2 that it will happen sooner than later.
FAANG stocks have an obvious appointment with their July 13, 2020 highs. The emini is at a new rally high already, and will almost certainly be joining the continued FAANG rally today and tomorrow.
This bull market may be just getting started as the only stocks participating are FAANG and a few recent (24 month or less) IPO momentum tickers. Quite literally 99.2% of the S&P 500 have yet to join the rally. Assuming they do, we are going much higher. The most likely immediate future projection is that the S&P tries to test or breakout to new highs, and then we see what market comes this way.
That test of the high is also sooner than later, and can happen as soon as today in terms of the actual all time high. Quantitatively speaking, the test is occurring as we sit, as anything above the February 24, 2020 high and the February 19, 2020 all time high constitutes a test of that high given the nature of the gap between February 21,2020's close and the February 24, 2020 open and high and the ensuing market panic.
Now that I got all that out of the way, market breadth is concerning to the bull market case. Yesterday, for example, the Nasdaq was up over 2%, and yet just over 50% of the Nasdaq constituent tickers rose with it.
Also, yesterday was only the sixth time in the history of the S&P 500 where the index was up at least 3/4% and there were more declining issues than advancing. Four of the five instances in which that occurred were in 2000 and 2008 leading into their respective tops. The fifth, however, occurred during 2016, a year that saw a successful test of the bottom of a consolidation that lasted from October of 2014 through February of 2016 before the resumption of the 2009 bull market.
So 80% of the time that that price action and internals were such as we saw yesterday have marked an impending top before monstrous declines. So there is a 20% chance that we are in the process of breaking out on a multi-year run. Ever the optimist, I am enthusiastically bullish, albeit with a prudent attachment to caution and a willingness to face a more brutal reality and to trade it accordingly if that is what fate has in store for us.
Yeah, but what about the earnings of this 99% ? With little to no earnings, current PE ratios would be outrageously high....not a good scenario for ATH's going forward.
You weren't around 1995-2000. Earnings do not matter whatsoever. The market is about perceived expectations, not rear view results. When a ticker gaps open on good earnings, it is doing so on the expectation of continued even better results. No one is buying a stock because of what happened last month. What will matter is how does the 99% spin the future, and does the market buy their vision if the picture they paint is positive.
1995-2000 was a bet on the internet and that didn’t end well. Most .coms are no longer with us. I’d say for every amzn there was 10 NTBK or LVLT.
- Status