ES Journal - 2019/2020

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The vaccines a sham . Who is going to take a vaccine developed in a mere 4 months ? Thats suicide . There could be huge 1-3 year side affects. I bet 80% of people say screw that . Moderna who's never developed squat is being wagged around by Trump and co. to rush something out there. This virus will be an issue 3 yrs from now .
 
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Relentless said:
That should give us another retest of the 200ma if not too far out.

You run an approx time frame on that outlook or you just pencil the levels but not necessarily with a duration correlation?
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I played with this one a bunch today. I almost posted to B1 an edit that 3150 would happen before 3290 because 3035 seems like a million miles away atm. I didn't have the 200 day up though. I should have. There's certainly nothing wrong with having the 50/200 up. Anyway, I brought up all the time frames, even the monthly's going back to (probably) before you were born lol.

See you have to take into consideration a myriad of factors. You can't just look at the chart. We have politics, we have Corona, we have the Fed..... its a tough friggin call. With all that in mind, everything I came up with was lower on all time frames. From 3050 to 2980 to below 2800.

There's so damn many unknowns.

We have a lot of money chasing a limited # of stocks; that has always sent things higher. We have an election coming up where the favorite will no doubt raise taxes on everything and everyone except those below $60K with a family. States and localities will have no other choice but to raise taxes due to a heretofore unseen loss of revenue. We have a fiercely polarized populace and all that that encompasses that needs to be dealt with. Trump's solid 38% base or even if its as low 30% isn't going away regardless of who wins. These things are all important.

The half dozen stocks that are keeping us at this level are overpriced. Then you have the whole short squeeze thing. Its all a game. But make no mistake..... and I have said this a million times, long before I ever graced ET and it has always proven itself to be true... in the end... water seeks its level. Fundamentals DO and ALWAYS WILL matter.

So..... let me work on it some more, there's just too many factors to consider when you scale the chart out to 1990.
 
vanzandt said:
I played with this one a bunch today. I almost posted to B1 an edit that 3150 would happen before 3290 because 3035 seems like a million miles away atm. I didn't have the 200 day up though. I should have. There's certainly nothing wrong with having the 50/200 up. Anyway, I brought up all the time frames, even the monthly's going back to (probably) before you were born lol.

See you have to take into consideration a myriad of factors. You can't just look at the chart. We have politics, we have Corona, we have the Fed..... its a tough friggin call. With all that in mind, everything I came up with was lower on all time frames. From 3050 to 2980 to below 2800.

There's so damn many unknowns.

We have a lot of money chasing a limited # of stocks; that has always sent things higher. We have an election coming up where the favorite will no doubt raise taxes on everything and everyone except those below $60K with a family. States and localities will have no other choice but to raise taxes due to a heretofore unseen loss of revenue. We have a fiercely polarized populace and all that that encompasses that needs to be dealt with. Trump's solid 38% base or even if its as low 30% isn't going away regardless of who wins. These things are all important.

The half dozen stocks that are keeping us at this level are overpriced. Then you have the whole short squeeze thing. Its all a game. But make no mistake..... and I have said this a million times, long before I ever graced ET and it has always proven itself to be true... in the end... water seeks its level. Fundamentals DO and ALWAYS WILL matter.

So..... let me work on it some more, there's just too many factors to consider when you scale the chart out to 1990.
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Awesome post!

Looking forward to the follow up. :cool:

Just feels like a massive war between monetary & fiscal stimulus vs. reality. Obviously the former has shown what it is capable of this far but obviously that will end at some point (horribly I might add).
 
vanzandt said:
I couldn't have said it any better myself.

You young cats.... buy land. I'm tellin' ya. Not so much for the investment, that may or may not work out..... but it will always be there for you regardless of what goes down. You'll thank me long after VZ is gone. :D
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I agree land is a good hard asset to diversify with. It is however the most expensive upfront so obviously the more starting capital you have the easier it is to get rolling on it.

I still believe however that the stock market is the best medium for bettering one's long term financial foundation. At least until they print our currency into collapse - but then most of us are up the same shit creek at that point anyway no matter how well people have done for themselves.

As an aside - you can't leave. I forbid you to pull your contributions here :p. Losing NQurious was bad enough. Seek fountain of youth if you must.
 
Overnight said:
Vanz is talking about when he's dead. He doesn't mean he is voluntarily leaving.
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vanzandt said:
You young cats.... buy land. I'm tellin' ya. Not so much for the investment, that may or may not work out..... but it will always be there for you regardless of what goes down.
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There is no asset class free from the possibility of government seizure. We live in a destabilized world. That 38% Trump base who feign love of liberty are ready and willing to give it all away in the name of law and order and white power. The irony is that they themselves are largely that part of the population that would stand to benefit most from social democracy, and yet they choose authoritarianism instead. Land will be a fine investment so long as you are willing to align yourself on the side of the Nationalists forces should such forces come to power. Putin's oligarchs do just fine, until Putin perceives that he has been crossed. Then he confiscates the offender's wealth and puts him in prison.

Relentless said:
Just feels like a massive war between monetary & fiscal stimulus vs. reality.
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Monetary and fiscal stimulus are real. Jamie Dimon said what I think you are trying to say more accurately when he said "This is not a normal recession. The recessionary part of this you're going to see down the road due to all the stimulus."
 
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