ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Gaslight Capital]

Bipolar. I think possibly what's happening is it's going into sideways chop and reading the market is difficult if thinking in terms of it trending anywhere.

It might be November before it goes anywhere.

The way in which I quantify ranges, the prior range from April-May broke out on the 27th trading day of that range.

At 18:00 Eastern Daylight Savings time this evening, the 27th day trading day of this current range commenced. I believe this day will close above 3231.25. If the S&P 500 itself can get above 3233-5 and hold it for more than 5 minutes the market will be at 3250 in a flash. Above there and the ES will seek 3227.75, the February 21, 2020 low prior to the gap down that started the sell off.

I therefore respectfully agree with @Buy1Sell2 that new all time high prices in the S&P 500 are soon to follow.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Barn Burner in financials today and for the foreseeable future. The SP will be led to ATHs by financials.

It wasn't led by financials today but we certainly had a Barn Burner in SP!!!

 

[tiddlywinks]

There will be no fresh ATH in ES or YM until after the election and the virtual holiday season. To state it clearly, not until 2021. The surprise is... this will occur regardless of which party wins the Presidency.

 

[Bhad Traydor]

I have a bad feeling about this.

That it's going down and it's never looking back.

the next anemic spike might be after moderna phase 3 trials.

(if it works)

thats a few months away

and if it doesn't work?

 

[amsterdam]

I have a bad feeling about this.

That it's going down and it's never looking back.

In time....timing is everything.
But I do agree that the path of least resistance is up....for now

 

[wiesman02]

There will be no fresh ATH in ES or YM until after the election and the virtual holiday season. To state it clearly, not until 2021. The surprise is... this will occur regardless of which party wins the Presidency.

You will likely be correct in this prediction. The new question is: once covid runs its course in the states, how will consumer preferences change our economy. Will it cause permanent contraction in certain sectors ? Will it be business as usual ? we all know big tech / big caps will likely come out ahead if not better. It’s the mom and pops and the smaller caps who’s futures are up in the air.

I have a friend who is a store manager for a tj max. He is thinking about jumping ship to work at a bed bath and beyond as they offered him a job. He’s worried that tj max is just losing too much money to sustain in the long term. Much of retail is going to continue to see this contraction. US already has too many retail stores per capita. But once this contraction is over, where will the new jobs be ? Many companies are busy automating more and more. But I’m going off on a tangent.....

 

[syswizard]

Tomorrow is huge. Can Goldman Sachs traders beat the results of JP Morgan ?
Holy smokes.....that is huge. Man, JP Morgan put-up some awesome results today.

 

[Overnight]

...

I have a friend who is a store manager for a tj max. He is thinking about jumping ship to work at a bed bath and beyond as they offered him a job. He’s worried that tj max is just losing too much money to sustain in the long term...

Something to consider is that TJ Maxx sells clothes, while BB&B does not.

Everything sold at BBB can be bought online...But clothes? People still like to try on clothes before they buy them. Tough to do online.

 

[Bhad Traydor]

Something to consider is that TJ Maxx sells clothes, while BB&B does not.

Everything sold at BBB can be bought online...But clothes? People still like to try on clothes before they buy them. Tough to do online.

This is a very odd thing to say on a thread for ES trades.

a bot might reply like this.

 

[tiddlywinks]

Will it be business as usual ?

Absolutely not. Damage has already been done. In the US the fed will not be allowed to print enough dollars to simply replace what has been lost and continues to be lost. The tentacles of this creative destruction are slowly surfacing. This creative destruction is happening worldwide. I haven't even mentioned capital formation, jobs/unemployment, or specific sectors.