ES Journal - 2019/2020

[vanzandt]

I do have my core stock holdings/ my favs... It`s just better for me psychologically to be diversified as I prefer the hedge & to be long a degree of hard assets ... Iv`e always had excellent timing in RE, knock wood, as I have a set criteria when I purchase.

I was one of those that saw this whole thing RE debacle unfold before it did in `06... All the signs were there... this is when most sheeple couldn`t even imagine a foreclosure on every corner across the nation... I have builder friends that still thank me to this day for my April `07 Easter speech on what was going to unfold with option arms resetting, over levered lenders, etc. They still tell me I save their lives... I`m not one to pump my own tires & boast but this is one I will give myself as I was the only one that I knew that went out on a limb & was " talking crazy" at the time.

Its the Fed. Demand will surge. The people that aren't coming back to work because of Covid, they aren't building homes anyway. Multi-family is on fire.... I could do the B1 and find a few posts I wrote about this over the last 6 months... both pre and post Covid.

Here's the other thing. As it stands right now.... who is going to put their aging parent into an old folks home? I mean for real.

"Sorry mom, you have to move out of your house of 40 years and move into the Sunrise@Coral Gables Phase II assisted living."
"!@#$#$%$%"
"!!!!... No I'm not trying to kill you!".

So a lot of these houses are not going to enter the market.

There is no option. Build more. Both single and multi-family.

Like I always say.... buy the right land. In a tax-free state.

Wow!!!
Anyone see those new home #'s?

US: New Home Sales increase by 16.6% in May vs. 3.5% expected
NEWS | 3 minutes ago | By Eren Sengezer

• New Home Sales in the US rebounded sharply in May.
• US Dollar Index stays deep in red near mid-96s after the data.

New Home Sales in the US rose by 16.6% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, the data published jointly by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development showed on Tuesday.

This figure followed April's decline of 5.2% and beat the market expectation for an increase of 3.5% by a wide margin.

"The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2020 was $317,900," the press release read. "The average sales price was $368,800."

 

[wiesman02]

Plenty of range in ES, but actual jumpiness of price nearly non existant. Haven't seen it this slow in a long time

 

[tiddlywinks]

Wow!!!
Anyone see those new home #'s?

US: New Home Sales increase by 16.6% in May vs. 3.5% expected
NEWS | 3 minutes ago | By Eren Sengezer

• New Home Sales in the US rebounded sharply in May.
• US Dollar Index stays deep in red near mid-96s after the data.

New Home Sales in the US rose by 16.6% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, the data published jointly by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development showed on Tuesday.

This figure followed April's decline of 5.2% and beat the market expectation for an increase of 3.5% by a wide margin.

"The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2020 was $317,900," the press release read. "The average sales price was $368,800."

And at the other end of candle...

Kinda funny, this story is video only... no copy/paste of text. LOL.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/06/22/home-sales-down-26point6percent-vs-one-year-ago.html

 

[syswizard]

Plenty of range in ES, but actual jumpiness of price nearly non existant. Haven't seen it this slow in a long time

I'm showing 18 pts RTH range....and sine wave PA.
NQ on the other hand: rockin........
"Keep On A Rockin Me Baby"....remember that song ?

 

[tiddlywinks]

I'm showing 18 pts RTH range....and sine wave PA.

Depends what you are looking at.

RTH only, is 21.00 points.
24hr is 85.75 points.

5min RTH is very tradable, not sine wave imo

 

[wiesman02]

Depends what you are looking at.

RTH only, is 21.00 points.
24hr is 85.75 points.

5min RTH is very tradable, not sine wave imo

I'm not talking about range. I'm talking about how slow price is moving within the actual bars. Obviously its a function of the lack of volume today, but i still haven't seen this in quite a while

 

[Relentless]

I'm not talking about range. I'm talking about how slow price is moving within the actual bars. Obviously its a function of the lack of volume today, but i still haven't seen this in quite a while

Think he was quoting Syswizard not you just an FYI.

 

[tiddlywinks]

I'm not talking about range. I'm talking about how slow price is moving within the actual bars. Obviously its a function of the lack of volume today, but i still haven't seen this in quite a while

5min RTH volume has been running approximate average of 14000 per.

Now we enter lunch... waning began at approx 8:30pst today.

Whatever works for ya.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

Wow!!!
Anyone see those new home #'s?

US: New Home Sales increase by 16.6% in May vs. 3.5% expected
NEWS | 3 minutes ago | By Eren Sengezer

• New Home Sales in the US rebounded sharply in May.
• US Dollar Index stays deep in red near mid-96s after the data.

New Home Sales in the US rose by 16.6% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, the data published jointly by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development showed on Tuesday.

This figure followed April's decline of 5.2% and beat the market expectation for an increase of 3.5% by a wide margin.

"The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2020 was $317,900," the press release read. "The average sales price was $368,800."

The RE market is sound... That was a blow out number all things considered....

 

[vanzandt]

The RE market is sound... That was a blow out number all things considered....

$368K average price. That number just keeps climbing and climbing. Labor, materials, permits, the land and the required infrastructure. Man.

I know that figure is cheap in your neck of the woods, but I just don't see how new families can qualify in most areas of this country. Between the cost of vehicles, child-care, medical insurance, and a dozen other miscellaneous expenses... you need two wage earners each making a $100K. That may work in the NE and the West Coast, but those jobs are few and far between in flyover country for folks in their late 20's early 30's. And who's gonna take care of and fund all these aging boomers? The ones that aren't so well off. The ones who's only real wealth is in fact their home. That's only going to get worse too. That home will only buy a year or two of assisted care.

I dunno.... these markets don't reflect the real world though. That's for sure. TSLA can go $2000, Apple to $600, NVDA to $500, MSFT to $400, etc.... it doesn't matter.

We're gonna have a bigggg recession soon. I know we're in one technically, but the worst is yet to come. This day to day bs about how our markets are so strong... its a myopic mindset. We are being so short-sighted.

I know I sound like some old miser here... but if I had to give any advice to you young cats... man forgo the new cars, the $5 SBUX, the $150 NKE's, the $100 date nights with the wife/gf/whoever... and all the other consumer bs. Drive a beater, shop at thrift stores... keep your cash-flow at a minimum and use every penny saved to buy the cheapest house in the best neighborhood you can afford. Quit spending money!