ES Journal - 2019/2020

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vanzandt said:
That 5 Trillion, I'm not sure without looking how that stacks up historically against other times of uncertainty, but if its a high-water mark, or even close, you can rest assured these markets will keep going up until every bit of that money jumps in. I've seen it play out that way more than a few times.
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Markets go up and markets go down up.
 
vanzandt said:
The higher it goes the bigger the crash. Someone in another thread asked if it were even possible to see another 30% correction in our lifetimes. You can bet your ass its more than possible.... it's a given.
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Blow-off top coming.....maybe by the end of July. By then the 2nd qtr "no-no" reports will be out:
- no sales
- no earnings
- no dividends
- no guidance
- no employees
- no offices
- no raises
- no bonuses
In addition, no one paying rents, mortgages or taxes.
Welcome to the new "no-no" economy....LOL.
 
syswizard said:
Blow-off top coming.....maybe by the end of July. By then the 2nd qtr "no-no" reports will be out:
- no sales
- no earnings
- no dividends
- no guidance
- no employees
- no offices
- no raises
- no bonuses
In addition, no one paying rents, mortgages or taxes.
Welcome to the new "no-no" economy....LOL.
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That... and politics aside... I don't see how what appears to be an almost certain Biden win, will be favorable to the markets. It will be ugly. Treasury Secretary Warren... and that's just the tip of the iceberg. Watch out below.

Who knows though... China just may be sitting on a vaccine. Who's their lesser of two evils?
 
vanzandt said:
That 5 Trillion, I'm not sure without looking how that stacks up historically against other times of uncertainty, but if its a high-water mark, or even close, you can rest assured these markets will keep going up until every bit of that money jumps in. I've seen it play out that way more than a few times.
More...

It pains me to say this zandy, but you are thinking conventionally. You assume all that money is able to go into the markets. I think one of those articles mentions how some of that money got there... Clearly whatever the amount, it is huge and able to move markets over time. Im only saying 5 trillion (if that figure is accurate) is not capable or even allowed to go into equity markets.

The world operates based on interest rates and exchange rates. Now the Fed is buying up high yield corporates, and short term public(govt) debt. These instruments are required, by pensions in particular, in order to meet ancient obligations. And then you have the dollar. The current semi-swoon is good... it allows third-world countries and their debt a breathe! And the ability to sell hard assets(metals, commodities, etc) at a more favorable exchange rate. In another thread you spoke of lumber inflation... it's being created by shortage, not demand! Supply chain shortage. We saw the same thing recently with certain food items like chicken and pork. Plenty to go around, but unable to get the product to market. A shortage. We haven't yet seen the affects of the shutdown. It's coming out in pieces that takes alot of work to keep track of... the other day it was stated Live sports of all kinds will cost the US300 Billion. Pick a business type, any business type, it's all going to show up. Don't just think the obvious. After we get the US figured, lets add other continents... US5 Trillion won't be mind-numbing.
 
tiddlywinks said:
It pains me to say this zandy, but you are thinking conventionally. You assume all that money is able to go into the markets. I think one of those articles mentions how some of that money got there... Clearly whatever the amount, it is huge and able to move markets over time. Im only saying 5 trillion (if that figure is accurate) is not capable or even allowed to go into equity markets.

The world operates based on interest rates and exchange rates. Now the Fed is buying up high yield corporates, and short term public(govt) debt. These instruments are required, by pensions in particular, in order to meet ancient obligations. And then you have the dollar. The current semi-swoon is good... it allows third-world countries and their debt a breathe! And the ability to sell hard assets(metals, commodities, etc) at a more favorable exchange rate. In another thread you spoke of lumber inflation... it's being created by shortage, not demand! Supply chain shortage. We saw the same thing recently with certain food items like chicken and pork. Plenty to go around, but unable to get the product to market. A shortage. We haven't yet seen the affects of the shutdown. It's coming out in pieces that takes alot of work to keep track of... the other day it was stated Live sports of all kinds will cost the US300 Billion. Pick a business type, any business type, it's all going to show up. Don't just think the obvious. After we get the US figured, lets add other continents... US5 Trillion won't be mind-numbing.
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Excellent points. And absolutely, I did make that statement based on history. Two likes on that one.
 
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