ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Overnight]

I must be naive. What'a "row"?
...

A "row", pronounced raow (like raow as a cat makes when it is mad), is a Britishism and means a conflict or disagreement.

 

[tiddlywinks]

I see you have thoughts about how some short term movement may play out with the NQ / Dow (and that you been living in RTY).

If you don't mind me asking, do you have an opinion on the very short term movement for the Russel? Just curious since you say the NQ won't give as much and that the Dow could shed X amount of points.

Thanks and good trading to you as well!

The easiest/simplest explanation can be seen on MONTHLY charts...

NQ did not take out the 2019 low in early 2020.

This makes NQ "different" from ES and YM, and RTY too.

RTY however, has been in a bear market for nearly 2 years,
which makes it "different" than ES, YM, and NQ.

The dollar is also an input.

I'd prefer a move of extended duration, as opposed to only a handful of trading sessions...
It makes chart analysis a lot easier for me!

I hope that throws some light on what I see, at least partially.

 

[vanzandt]

For whatever reason there seems to be this tendency for post-FOMC hangover in the Powell era. It started back when he was a semi-hawk, but seems to persist even now that he has become the biggest dove ever.

Yeah but can you hit a driver 255 yards? Its key to a low handicap.

https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/golf.311871/page-28#post-5122646

And B1.... I love ya bro.... but I had to bite my chops on this one.

There's an item to remember when golfing.----Even though your swing should be repeatable, it is different off the tee versus off the deck. Off the deck, you'll want to hit down on the ball, whereas off the tee, you"ll want to shallow and sweep the ball. ---If you hit driver the way you hit irons you will be popping the ball up and/or losing massive distance.==Ish==


So in essence.... you finally discovered and feel compelled to post about the wooden tee, why its used, and teeing off with a driver.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/golf.311871/page-28#post-5106334
Eureka moment I guess in some parts....

Here's the thing B1.... when you're really good..... you can use a driver like an an iron without a tee anywhere. Learned that trick at like age 11 bro. Keep at it, you'll figure it out.

165 in if you want to be a player.

 

[vanzandt]

Now the world has been assured the Fed isn't/won't take rogue actions for the next 18 months. Attention is and will turn in entirety to the main street issues.... unemployment, reopening flatness, tourism on the skids, the abrupt cancellation of "cops" after 32 years, etc, etc, etc.

Fascinating, here in Vegas, Casinos re-opened June 4. Nothing but crickets as to numbers or progress afaict. Lots of hoopla surrounding re-opening though, complete with two thousand free airline tickets from a downtown hotel. They had to give it away to reopen! Restaurants all over town hurting big-time. Still drive-thru only fast food with no inside dining. I see TacoBell (YUM) took it in the shorts for breakfast and late nite. The economy should've never been closed, and sure, something is better than nothing, but financial reality and official lies are hard to miss now. Maybe I should vacay in Spain... 100E fine for not wearing a mask and government mandated rules for all business operations. Nah, Sedona AZ will do my mind wonders!

NQ won't participate fully with a sell-off.
Dow can shed 1500-1800 here. Then take a fresh look for possible retest of the major.
I've been living in RTY for the past months.
Recently (June 1) added YM and MGC to my bag o' tools and tricks.

Good trading to all.

Fooooore!.

 

[Relentless]

The easiest/simplest explanation can be seen on MONTHLY charts...

NQ did not take out the 2019 low in early 2020.

This makes NQ "different" from ES and YM, and RTY too.

RTY however, has been in a bear market for nearly 2 years,
which makes it "different" than ES, YM, and NQ.

The dollar is also an input.

I'd prefer a move of extended duration, as opposed to only a handful of trading sessions...
It makes chart analysis a lot easier for me!

I hope that throws some light on what I see, at least partially.

Nice observations! Definitely helpful.

Appreciate your time.

 

[Nighthawk]

Buying 3117. Target +60 candles from here.

 

[IB_Dude]

I must be naive. What'a "row"?

Still some good peeps here such as yourself that provide good content. Sadly I feel this thread largely died with NQ's exit. Oh well - egos will be egos . What can you do.

Thanks.Sadly, I'm not always as active as I'd like to be.

@Overnight definition of a "row" is correct. America is an adopted home for me, but my background is quite global. After 2+ decades in the states, I still often need to be careful about my lingo in order to maintain clear communication.

 

[Relentless]

Thanks.Sadly, I'm not always as active as I'd like to be.

@Overnight definition of a "row" is correct. America is an adopted home for me, but my background is quite global. After 2+ decades in the states, I still often need to be careful about my lingo in order to maintain clear communication.

No problem - thanks for clarifying. I assumed it was something along those lines but was curious .

Hope ya got some shorts on for the drop!

 

[IB_Dude]

No problem - thanks for clarifying. I assumed it was something along those lines but was curious .

Hope ya got some shorts on for the drop!

Didn't post the trade live, but my positions are below:
No current ES shorts.
Long WORK (Was long AMD off the chart below, BUT sold out yesterday because, similarly to the last breakout posted here, this stock never seems to follow through.)
Short SPY 6/12 320 calls (This was a holdover from a hedge on yesterday's FOMC play. Kept it when that weak close materialized off the H&S)
Long 6/12 SPY 318 puts

I'll be very honest, I wasn't fully firm with my bearish sentiment due to the market's exuberance. So I'm not gonna come here and tell you I saw it all coming. However, I was expecting yesterday's move to 3187 to happen on Tuesday, and when it didn't materialize, I went into observation mode in case we went to 3246. I actually had 325 calls yesterday too (licked my chops on that play).

You'll notice that I play a lot of options and it's because it helps, if structured appropriately, to take away directional bias and still make a healthy profit. ES is often a supplemental play for me based on a conviction on a certain move.

See below for AMD chart. The extent and strength of the move gladly surprised me.

 

[Relentless]

Didn't post the trade live, but my positions are below:
No current ES shorts.
Long WORK (Was long AMD off the chart below, BUT sold out yesterday because, similarly to the last breakout posted here, this stock never seems to follow through.)
Short SPY 6/12 320 calls (This was a holdover from a hedge on yesterday's FOMC play. Kept it when that weak close materialized off the H&S)
Long 6/12 SPY 318 puts

I'll be very honest, I wasn't fully firm with my bearish sentiment due to the market's exuberance. So I'm not gonna come here and tell you I saw it all coming. However, I was expecting yesterday's move to 3187 to happen on Tuesday, and when it didn't materialize, I went into observation mode in case we went to 3246. I actually had 325 calls yesterday too (licked my chops on that play).

You'll notice that I play a lot of options and it's because it helps, if structured appropriately, to take away directional bias and still make a healthy profit. ES is often a supplemental play for me based on a conviction on a certain move.

See below for AMD chart. The extent and strength of the move gladly surprised me.

View attachment 230322

Nice! Thanks for the write-up.

I've been long TZA since Monday but that is my only current position.

I find the option stuff very interesting. Do you have any suggestions / recommendations for educational resources? Learning options application has been on my to do list for hedging among other things.

Otherwise looks like you've got some good positions on there! Best of luck with them.