ES Journal - 2019/2020

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rumor has it the Fed will not be re-filling the punch bowl inJune.They'll likely wait till the numbers for Q2 come out in July


The Fed has already publicly announced $22 Billion in market operations for this first week of June. They publish their intended purchases for each day of the week in advance. So there is no need to listen to rumors on this. The Fed has been extremely transparent about their various market operations. You can fact check your rumor source at the New York Fed's website.
 
My "system" is not good enough to project levels, but it says very high probability (80%+) that markets will be lower by this Friday than the current levels. I should be 100% short based on data, but am squeamish going against the Fed like that, so 25% cash and 75% short (Financials, IWM, SPY). Based on this bias I day trade in and out of IWM and SPY. EOD analysis to update and change market views as needed.

caution: only in the market this time for a little over two months. Last attempt was when I was a failure in 08 shorting housing market one year before the crash

Putting in stops today on my shorts/ puts. Based on futures data looks like it will hit. Should have taken profits on Friday, now it looks like it will be a breakeven trade on Financials + IWM. Letting the SPY puts be. Overall if the stops are hit, will be 20% short and 80% cash.

Cant beat them, join them!.
 
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