ES Journal - 2019/2020

Status
Not open for further replies.
Laissez Faire said:
Some possible scenarios/trajectories for the coming week.

I'm betting on a variation of 2 or 3.

If we can make one final push up to 3100/3130 or so before rolling over, 2860 might be pushing it this week. So maybe not before next week.

The last few Monday's been fairly bullish.

The third option is that we just keep ripping higher for a bit longer, but technically I think we're a bit overextended here.

Any thoughts for the week(s) ahead?

View attachment 229336
More...

I'm looking for a 2 scenario, NQ test or Pop of ATH may be the trigger.
 
EON Kid said:
I'm looking for a 2 scenario, NQ test or Pop of ATH may be the trigger.
More...

Cool.

I'm thinking if we can take out last week's high at 3065.50, we'll most likely trade all the way up to 3100/3130.

For now, the market is in bull-mode until proven otherwise. IMO.
 
Laissez Faire said:
Some possible scenarios/trajectories for the coming week.

I'm betting on a variation of 2 or 3.

If we can make one final push up to 3100/3130 or so before rolling over, 2860 might be pushing it this week. So maybe not before next week.

The last few Monday's been fairly bullish.

The third option is that we just keep ripping higher for a bit longer, but technically I think we're a bit overextended here.

Any thoughts for the week(s) ahead?

View attachment 229336
More...
My "system" is not good enough to project levels, but it says very high probability (80%+) that markets will be lower by this Friday than the current levels. I should be 100% short based on data, but am squeamish going against the Fed like that, so 25% cash and 75% short (Financials, IWM, SPY). Based on this bias I day trade in and out of IWM and SPY. EOD analysis to update and change market views as needed.

caution: only in the market this time for a little over two months. Last attempt was when I was a failure in 08 shorting housing market one year before the crash
 
Whynottrade said:
My "system" is not good enough to project levels, but it says very high probability (80%+) that markets will be lower by this Friday than the current levels. I should be 100% short based on data, but am squeamish going against the Fed like that, so 25% cash and 75% short (Financials, IWM, SPY). Based on this bias I day trade in and out of IWM and SPY. EOD analysis to update and change market views as needed.
More...

Interesting. What kind of system are you using? A statistical one of some sort?

I think everyone is a bit cautious shorting this market. Regardless, I think we'll have enough time to join the short side when the next sell comes, so not trying to pick a top in advance.
 
Laissez Faire said:
Interesting. What kind of system are you using? A statistical one of some sort?

I think everyone is a bit cautious shorting this market. Regardless, I think we'll have enough time to join the short side when the next sell comes, so not trying to pick a top in advance.
More...
yes statistical. own version of relative strength, price-vol (similar to TRIN), market breadth and correlation of daily returns.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top