ES Journal - 2019/2020

[wiesman02]

Long 3020 stop 3010. Looking for a gap fill

just my luck. Went to go take a nap, and just looked. Got stopped out a couple points from the bottom. -10

 

[Relentless]

just my luck. Went to go take a nap, and just looked. Got stopped out a couple points from the bottom. -10

Crap I missed the timestamp.

Was still a good call man.

Next time.

 

[wiesman02]

Long 46 stop 41

 

[wiesman02]

Long 46 stop 41

-5. Flip short @41 stop 50

 

[wiesman02]

Looking for this to wedge on the 60 min. Target around 3020ish. might take another 90 mins or so to complete. we'll see

 

[theapprentice]

L 3012

order in to close at 3032.
See ya tomorrow

filled for +20
Should have had a bigger target

 

[theapprentice]

L 3053 (I want 3040ish, but in case they don't let it drop that far, got 1 on here. Concerned about missing a big trend day)

 

[theapprentice]

Add 34 (43.5 avg)

 

[theapprentice]

Add (43.5 avg)

out +2

Should be able to get in a little cheaper for the next move

 

[Relentless]

1) Just Truncated ES numbers 288 is 3288
2) Google Auction market theory. Many books, sites & videos that can do a far better job explaining than I can. Try to relate prices back to something you understand like the prices of oranges and human behavior in buying at certain levels
3) Good structure is a normal distribution of prices, Thin tails at the edge, with a fat boob centre. Small boobs (blue) get built with supply and demand, sudden changes in supply and demand shift prices to build boobs further away. But then the market repairs stucture, doing back tests - infilling PA etc. This converges to a larger macro boob (Yellow). See how the larger macro boob (yellow)tends to a normal distribution. Each market has its own character, some will trend strongly with no looking back, but each will hit balance at some point.
View attachment 229271

Awesome thanks for all this. Will definitely read up on the auction theory.

I suppose.

I have no problems understanding why the 50 % retrace works well quite often as markets by their very nature retraces. 50 % is easily programmed, identified and watched by many.

I have no experience with the other esoteric Fibonacci levels/projections as it seems too random/illogical to me. Besides, you get so many levels on your charts that something is bound to stick by the end of the day/week. And if that's the proposition you're left with - might as well using something else for signals. IMO, of course.

Well I'm only looking at two levels for Fib that hit frequently and then the 50% which is not a Fib level FTW. So it's really not a visual hindrance - especially since I see them working on a consistent basis.

Anyway I get what your saying. Appreciate your thoughts.

In my work, when gaps are confluent with a Naked POC (Point Of Control), a "gap play" does exist when the appropriate directional is triggered. Gaps and Naked POCs in my work, are magnetic price targets individually. Confluence adds to likelihood. Distance from current pricing, how long the gap has remained unfilled, and of course market environment are all factors to be considered in real time that affect as well.

Additionally, while gaps and naked POCs are each standalone price magnets, the mentioned confluence has a tendency to act as support or resistance... with larger gap fills having less ability.

These are some helpful observations you've picked up on. Thanks for the knowledge drop.