ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Little cup w/handle as viewed on the M5

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NQurious said:
To be fair, all I had to go on were your words which made no mention of a new HOD followed by new LOD in last 75 minutes of session.
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I generally do not want to share specifics about what I do publicly, but I did say a late session reversal which should be different than a late session drop. It goes without saying that the market have found a bottom in the last hour more than 8 times since 2008.

For example, today is a day where I would not be surprised by the same late day high, new lows in in last hour scenario. We have the FOMC today ... might that be used as the explanatory catalyst by financial journalists and entertainers? Almost definitely! But here we are more than an hour before the open, and I can say that there is a 60/40 chance we see the high first, low last, and that while that high may occur early, it is like to happen late. So if that scenario plays out, do we say it was the result of a distortion caused by news or is it due to the technical position and condition of the market?
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You're not really saying much here at all except that anything can happen and that there's a 60 % chance we'll see the high first.

I will revise what I said earlier. My data set actually goes back to 2005 and 3666 trading days.

8 times out of 3666 trading days or 0,2 % of all trading days did the market make a HOD in the last 75 minutes followed by a new LOD going into the Close.

And that's why yesterday's late reversal surprised me since it's so rare. Up until yesterday it had only happened 7 times since 2005. And that's not my opinion, but hard data.
 
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